- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
I am aware that this is one of those things that is so radically out of step with the media narrative that people will come in my comments and say “lol pure copium” “what on earth are you smoking to say something so wrong” “what you are DELUDED how can you even say something that is so RADICALLY DIFFERENT from what the New York Times assured me of”
All I can say is, you are welcome to. We don’t discriminate. Feel free to cite other polls including the ones that ask Trump voters as well as Biden voters whether Biden is too old to be president and other entertaining things other than who they’re going to vote for.
Also, yes, the debate was a pure horrifying shit show. So is getting convicted of 24 felonies, or electing the guy who wants to kill protestors and abolish the Department of Education, and contraception, and the EPA and NOAA, and deploy the military against protestors, and a wide variety of other things that are literally too extreme to list without boring everyone and making me sounding like a crazy person.
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Good. If Biden survives that horrid episode, against my expectations, we will all be the better for it. For now, I’ll allow myself to hope.
This poll is a notable outlier… The article is basically just a blog post from the polling outfit itself…
Here’s results on 65 different polls for Michigan:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-michigan.html
The vast majority of polls have Trump leading Michigan, but a lot of those are also within the margin of error and otherwise very close.
What is with Lemmy’s insistence on pretending that the debate either didn’t hurt Biden, or actually helped him?
It’s like a lot of people here actually believe that by pretending nothing is wrong, that means nothing is wrong.
Some people are doubling down as the narrative that criticising biden was akin to supporting trump which was being spouted a lot before the debate.
It seems a lot of people seem unable to get away from the idea that “biden is too mentally infirm” is a republican talking point and therefore cannot be true. It is a republican talking point but it also is worryingly true.
The New York Times is not an unbiased source on this. I would trust almost anything that wasn’t some random person on Twitter, above the NYT’s polling numbers.
The article is basically just a blog post from the polling outfit itself
Are you deliberately constructing this to encourage moderator activity against the post? Describing it as a “blog post” is fairly bizarre.
What is with Lemmy’s insistence on pretending that the debate either didn’t hurt Biden, or actually helped him?
It’s like a lot of people here actually believe that by pretending nothing is wrong, that means nothing is wrong.
Was “pure horrifying shit show” not direct enough for you? How would you have preferred I described it when I talked about this? I went into more detail about what I think some solutions might be and my feelings on it, elsewhere in the thread, too.
Although, I guess, I do understand that the package deal where you tell the person you’re talking to what their opinion is, and then why the thing you made up is wrong, makes it a lot easier to conduct the conversation. Sure, tell me more about why I am pretending nothing is wrong.
There are a lot of people more closely related to ostriches than others. I can be denialist about some things but generally am a pessimist so that I can be pleasantly surprised when my predictions come untrue.
Also, yes, the debate was a pure horrifying shit show. So is getting convicted of 34 felonies, or electing the guy who wants to kill protestors
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma
you are welcome
If you have a credible plan for how to achieve a third result, let’s fuckin have it.
I am completely serious. I want to replace Biden with Jon Stewart, because that is the most confidence inducing thing I can come up with and seems at least as likely as all kinds of crazy unrealistic shit I am hearing and at least carries the advantage that if it did happen, I feel like I could relax quite a bit about what the election is going to result in. But if you have something more realistic, which wouldn’t be hard, let’s have it.
Biden steps aside and literally anyone else becomes the third option. Like, do they automatically win? No, but it’s a third option. This whole debate is about the third option, and those pathways are being talked about by Democratic elected officials, not randos on message boards. It’s a real option, so calling that a false dilemma is entirely correct.
ITs a false dillema dude.
Kamala, Michelle Obama, as you said, Jon Stewart.
The bench is deep with better options and we haven’t had a convention.
I really think it could make sense to pass the torch to Kamala. It’s not perfect, but she can talk in complete sentences. Her debate performances were bad, but I remember she completely ragdolled Biden in the first '20 primary debate. She doesn’t have a lot to her that’s good, but she also doesn’t have a lot of baggage. So, she’s kind of a nothingburger, which could be good depending on your angle. She’s still a really conservative left choice who should be able to appeal to the apparently very large auth center segment of the party and to undecided voters. It also makes sense because she’s Biden’s VP. It would be a very easy sell to say “I’ve reviewed everything with friends, family, and peers, and we’ve decided that it’s the right thing for both me and the country to step back and concede leadership to the Vice President.” Then, they just have to pick a VP, which is much more of a triviality.
Do I wish the democrats had used even like two seconds of foresight and spent the last four years prepping Kamala for this moment? Yes, of course, but we’ve got to work with what we’ve got, and as it was, Biden went up on stage with a shotgun, said “heads up, chucklefuck”, and blew his own leg off in front of the whole country. I firmly believe Kamala can do better than that.
If you have a credible plan for how to achieve a third result, let’s fuckin have it.
here is the fucking plan: the democratic party leadership and biden administration will stop trying to perpetrate fraud on american voters by intentionally hiding health state of current president (because as of right now it is pretty clear that is what they are doing), will stop acting like a mafia, start acting like a DEMOCRATIC party and organize primaries. how about that?
Okay, so significantly less likely than Jon Stewart. Got it. Well, if that’s all you’ve got on offer, I plan to shrug my shoulders and vote for the guy who doesn’t want to kill or deport me, and I would recommend that others do and advocate the same.
Biden winning this campaign against Trump in bis current condition is looking about as likely as Biden choosing to step down and Stewert stepping into electoral politics
yeah, lets vote for demented grandpa who doesn’t remember his own name, because… checks notes… democracy is so unlikely people should just give up 😆
If our options are third party or we lose democracy then we’ve already lost democracy and we’re just now figuring it out.
Agreed. It’s the horrifying realization I’ve been coming to terms with these last 4 years.
We have, to a large functional extent. Democracy requires a free enough press that people can determine what’s going on, which they currently can’t.
I fail to see how making every aspect of that problem exponentially worse by letting Trump come to power will fix it. Are you under the impression that Trump will have the military seize the voting machines and run the 2028 election, but that third parties will then still be a viable alternative?
Therrrrre it is
I kinda had a feeling that was where this was going.
Yes. He’s not demented, but even if he was, yes. Vote for Biden, or Kamala Harris, or fuckin Daffy Duck if that’s who’s on the ballot on the other side of Trump.
Reforming the Democrats so they are not so shit also sounds like a great idea, just unlikely to me to happen in the next few months. But in the meantime, yes. If a bucket of ranch dressing was running as the nominee in November, I would plan to vote for the bucket, because it doesn’t plan to do any mass deportations or have the military seize the voting machines to prevent any improvement of the system in the future that you just claimed is your hope to achieve with all of this.
I kinda had a feeling that was where this was going.
that’s what the debate is about since the debate (pun intended), but good on you for having a feeling, you just discovered the true meaning of xmas, detective 😂
Reforming the Democrats so they are not so shit also sounds like a great idea, just unlikely to me to happen in the next few months.
yes, it would be lot of work in short time, that is not the reason not to do it.
But in the meantime, yes. If a bucket of ranch dressing was running as the nominee in November, I would plan to vote for the bucket
problem is that bucket might win, biden will likely lose.
You made some valid points, so I upvoted you because of what you wrote even though I an highly skeptical of this polling data. My personal impression is that while polling may be at best inaccurate, the total summation of the available evidence suggests the situation for the Biden campaign is beyond dire.
It appears, from the outside, to be significantly worse than 2016 at this point. Especially given some of the answers he gave in his interview yesterday. When the candidate himself has made it clear that he is okay with losing, I think that is pretty much a wrap. You aren’t motivating anybody. If you don’t give a fuck about the potential dystopian future of this country, then why would that reality even register for the average normie voter?
When one side is a death cult with religious fervor toward their deified god king, and the other side has a leader who thinks they are trying to win the equivalent of a pickup basketball game you tell me what you think the most likely outcome is going to be. Fuck the data. On a human level, things are looking bleak as fuck, and no polling is going to change that.
I think the debate was a horrifying disaster. I think the Democrats should be having a hard conversation about what they want to do, and this mindlessly stubborn “fuck you it’s Biden” attitude is just as harmful as is the constant hand-wringing about how we can’t possibly go forward with it being Biden.
Surely, the right move is for Biden to go up on stage and say, look, I want the best for the Democrats. I’m fine with an open convention. No one in the Democratic party is the enemy. Trump is the enemy. Let’s have an open convention, and figure out what we want to do, if everyone can commit to getting the fuck behind it and winning the election once that is done. I hope it’s me, but if it’s not I’ll support the nominee, but let’s figure it the fuck out without getting in slap fights with each other while there’s a crocodile approaching the children.
Just as surely as that, doing the whole ABC interview was just compounding mistake upon mistake. The first rule of getting bullied is, you don’t stand up in front of the class afterwards and make a big speech about how you’re not actually a big poopie head, and show everybody your head so they can see there’s no poop on it, and it was totally unfair for everyone to say those mean things about you because they’re not true.
The part that pisses me off, and the reason I wanted to post this, is the absolutely relentless drumbeat of shitting on Biden and panicking that about a third of the Democratic party is for some reason leaning way the fuck into now. It’s just stupid. They talked you into the idea that all the American voters suddenly forgot that Trump might execute them, because of the debate. Surprisingly enough, they didn’t. The New York Times sure did. They ran 8 out of 8 of their front page stories yesterday about how Biden is bad. Someone needs to show them the data before they keep milking this thing and make it come true.
Guys: Trump is gonna fuckin execute you. Wake the fuck up. If you think Biden’s too old, let’s have a fuckin solution, because he might be going to execute me too, or at least put me in prison, and I’m really fuckin sick of you pretending the polls show this objective disaster for him (when they don’t), and creating the exact “he’s gonna lose the election” situation that you claim is your greatest fear, the whole time while you’re doing everything in your power to create it.
You think the people panicking about Biden’s declining acuity and pushing for a swap of candidates have forgotten about Trump?
I think the people urging we ignore his declining performance in service of keeping him on the top of the ticket are doing the most harm to the democratic campaign given the threat posed by trump. Democrats can’t afford a nominee that might fall asleep in the middle of cross-examination. If the one thing dems need is someone who can argue the case against Trump, the bare minimum qualification is the ability to stay on message, and Biden simply doesn’t have it anymore. He can barely finish a complete thought anymore.
Did you catch the Friday interview with Biden?
Reaction? Did you think it helped or hurt?
Didn’t Hillary also lead in swing state polls?
Yeah, supposedly pollsters changed their algorithms to be more accurate after 2016. And 2020 polls were pretty accurate. But leading a poll when you’re still within the margin of error where you can lose isn’t really worth anything (that’s what happened to HRC). You can lead the poll but the poll can still be accurate to you losing.
The whole process of polling is a pile of shit.
I analyzed some polls for recent elections, and they were off by an average of 16 percentage points. They only write that “margin of error 3%” thing because if they were honest about it, no one would listen to their poll, and they’d just use the ones from all the other people who still were lying about their MoE.
The “changed their algorithms” thing is just adding random fudge factors to the dogshit methodology until the answers come out right, but it never makes them predictive at all of the next election, because the underlying methodology is still dogshit. Basically, they call people on the phone, 1-2% of them answer, and then they bark a bunch of questions and whoever stays on the line for the whole thing, they assume that’s a good sample for everyone else and won’t be correlated with any other factors. Which, when you start thinking about it, makes it make sense why it might be off by 16 points.
There’s actually an argument to be made that a change in the polling is pretty reflective of a change in sentiment, even if the overall accuracy might be off by 10 or 20 points, is part of why I posted this. But mostly, I posted it to throw into sharp relief the dishonesty of the overall media narrative “Biden is fucked in polling cause debate,” which is created through a mixture of asking cunningly crafted questions to make it not an apples to apples comparison, mindless journalistic groupthink, and lying.
The presidency is not a single person, it’s a vision, communicated philosophy and the full staff of an administration. Smart people know that.
I can’t speak to polls, just myself, but I can’t vote for Biden – he seems borderline too old for the job now, it’d be painful to see an accelerated decline over the next four years.
Other people might be too old for that job at an earlier age, some at a later age; it’s a personal thing on how age effects a person and their abilities to do certain things. For him it’s getting past time.
And Trump is horrible for the reasons you list and more. Plus, if he gets in office removing him after is a worry.
I’ve always voted Democrat. I was for Bernie in 2016 and also wrote him in as a protest in 2020 (I was mad they made everyone bow-out at once and defer to Biden, and I recall thinking he was too old even then). Bernie is too old now even for throwing away my vote on another protest (he’s actually older than Biden, but again age vs. capabilities is a personal thing and even though he was looking good back in 2020, it feels wrong to vote for a guy in his 80s for a term no matter how good they seem.) I know that doesn’t matter because a write-in never wins, but I will always vote, and always vote for somebody I’d want for the job. I just can’t bring myself to vote ‘against’ somebody or feel I need to use my vote on one of the main people who actually have a chance to win. It’s just how I’m wired, and I don’t know how rare my broken thinking is, but I suspect it’s more common than most would guess.
So this time around, I don’t know. I hope someone else is there to vote for on top of Dem ticket instead of Biden, that’d probably be my pick no matter who it is. I might end up writing in Whitmer as a protest if not.
I disagree with you but respect your honesty - you don’t deserve the downvotes. I’m sure you’re not the only one jaded enough by this situation to cast a protest vote.
Just keep in mind that your protest vote effectively gives Trump a vote. His base might be stupid, but they do vote.
You can make that same argument about supporting a candidate like Biden, who has demonstrated an inability to win in this election cycle.
Whoooooooosh
Its funny cus’ your the one being wooshed here.
If you think this is even apples to oranges, you are part of the “left’s” problem. I don’t see much point in interacting with someone who essentially just tried to both-sides this.
Or alternatively by insisting on running a candidate that is polling in the low 30’s, its you, in your “Blue Maga” thinking, thats the problem.
Its not this false dilemma and a departure from a fact based reality that you’ve convinced yourself the situation to be. We can pursue other candidates; it doesn’t hurt the party to do so, it helps them, and we can still win this: just not with Joe Biden.
Your denial-ism around the reality of the environment around Joe Biden, has been and continues to be the singularly most destructive thing to the Democrats chances electorally. You and your thinking aren’t just a part of the problem: they’re the entire problem.
You should leave all leftist and democratic spaces and join the other cult members in the Donald camp, because thats about where you are at.
Ok then buddy. You know nothing of my politics, which is expected as we don’t know each other.
This is all unprecedented, no? The incumbent was always the presumptive nominee. This incumbent is about as healthy as a mallard with a cold. That instills confidence (/s). I really don’t like Joe Biden. If I’m being honest, I don’t care for any of them. But we work with what we got. And until there’s is a viable alternative, this is who we got. I don’t like it. I don’t support it. But I have to tolerate it, if it means keeping that traitorous piece of shit away from Capitol Hill.
Of everyone, I’d like to AOC give it a go. But she would lose, because we can’t have nice things.
I know it’s broken thinking, like I said. Just sharing, doubt I’m the only broken voter out there. Voting for individuals I don’t actually want in office feels like negotiating with terrorists. I am what I am, and I have a feeling there’s too many Popeyes like me out there. I think Biden is one of the few that Dems could realistically put on the ticket that wouldn’t beat Trump.
To be transparent, Biden is not who I’d like to see in the White House either. Call it sunk cost or whatever, but there aren’t any actual candidates that have thrown their hat in the ring. So what do we do? Write in Whitmer? I think she’d make a great president, but I just don’t see it happening. After all, that would be a positive outcome.
Yeah it’s tough. Write-in is in a way throwing away my vote like I mentioned. I hope Dems put someone else on the ticket, or that somehow Biden wins if they don’t (really don’t see Biden winning though ☹️ )
I feel you. I don’t want him, but the alternative doesn’t even begin to compare. It’s a middle finger to the American people to field such candidates.
The polls do not agree with you
That’s one of the reasons they started writing idiot stories about Michelle Obama. They polled a bunch of other Democrats against Trump, and Biden did better than almost all of them, and they can’t write that story. Kamala Harris, though, actually beat Biden by a couple percentage points, and they definitely can’t write that story, because it’s a realistic and sensible pathway forward.
And so, like the bullies at the back of the class, they shouted out “nominate Michelle Obama!”, and the fucking idiots started taking it seriously and talking about it, while the bullies are trying to laugh quietly with each other behind their notebooks, because of how easy it is to play this game.
Hope it works out, pretty sure they won’t have Biden on the ticket, or if they do Trump wins. Hope Trump doesn’t win. We’ll see.
I don’t follow the polls or politics I have to admit. Pretty sure Biden wouldn’t beat Trump if he’s on the ticket, but I’m guessing Dems will figure that out soon and put someone else up. We’ll see I suppose.
Michelle Obama sounds bizarre, I know she’s generally liked and many Americans crave political family dynasties, but I got the impression back in the day she didn’t really like politics and wasn’t that into Barry even pursuing the presidency nor reelection. But again just an impression, I could be wrong, I’m admittedly a random asshole on the internet who doesn’t follow this stuff typically nor closely when I do.
Have fun in the death camp
Maybe you’ll get lucky and it’ll “only” be illegalization of abortion and maybe birth control and porn, a ratcheting up by quite a lot of all the undemocratic shit that goes on at a state level to prevent fair elections, the functional end of fairly important things like the Department of Education or the EPA, and definitely not least of all, the end of any attempt at action on climate change, even the pitiful attempts at mitigation that are currently trying to prevent some of the most apocalyptic of outcomes.
Of course, that’s only the first four years. I think it’s fairly unlikely that four years of corruption of the judiciary would leave anything in place in terms of fair enough media and elections that we could get rid of the Republicans at any point going forward, until it gets so bad that there is a for real blood in the streets revolution and ensuing civil war.
But, you know, you didn’t have to vote for the old guy. I do understand how that could be upsetting.
You might not think so, but I think we’re on the same page, mild hyperbole aside. I just refuse to be forced to vote for somebody I don’t want to do the job, fundamental thing. I hope the Dems put someone else on the ticket, I guess we’ll see.
There was 0% hyperbole in anything I said. I was actually careful to draw a distinction between things I think are possible, things I think are likely, and things I think are virtually certain.
I know that in your mind, what I said was some kind of exaggeration to make a point. It wasn’t. That perception and the casual way you’re looking at this election is why you need to WAKE THE FUCK UP.
I believe you believe what you said completely. I shouldn’t have said ‘mild hyperbole’, that’s wrong since that would mean an intentional exaggeration.
I do think the biggest trouble Trump would cause if re-elected that we couldn’t address once he’s out is him not leaving. Feels like a too-high-odds deal of American electoral democracy ending with him. In that way I think Trump is a bigger issue than even your language conveys.
I have the luxury of throwing away my vote not living in a swing state, but I think others have similar voting instincts/morals/whatever that do live in those swing and near-swing states, and it will make the difference and let Trump in office ☹️ Right now I have to hope Dems will realize Biden wouldn’t win before it’s too late to replace him. That said, I bet they do the right thing; even with all the noise and biases in polls I think this is big enough where it’ll become apparent in the data in the coming weeks regardless, and I can’t see them going forward with what they will realize is a can’t-win candidate. They’ll wake the fuck up 🤞
