Polls aren’t votes
Vote
A friend of mine has right-wing parents who were Trump boosters in 2016. He says that January 6th left them aghast, and they aren’t supporting him now. That’s just two people sure, and this is entirely anecdotal, but it might be indicative of how the wind is blowing.
30% of the people voting in the GOP primary said they wouldn’t necessarily vote for the eventual nominee.
That is a massive and highly unusual number. And, just like so many other things, nobody fuckin knows that, because the media has a code of silence about it like a JV hockey team that just doesn’t talk about Logan’s sex crimes.
They just keep reporting polls of all registered voters who want to answer the phone, trying to correct their ratios and not bothering to try to ascertain who’s likely to vote, and then swearing that 2 point up or down differences in the resulting number are super important.
4 years ago there were a lot of houses with Trump/Pence signs in my neighborhood. Most of them removed their signs after the elections except for a few that had the whole combo police lives matters and don’t thread on me and stuff like that. After jan 6 even those houses removed their signs (and all others) and this year I have not seen any Trump sign in any backyard in the area.
This is what I don’t get. There is so much less trump enthusiasm in Michigan than in 2020. It’s all fucking anecdotal, so go with the data over my observations, but I just can’t see any sign that Trump is a force here.
I’ve seen like 2 Trump bumper stickers and not a single yard sign (I’ll give you the place that literally has his name painted on their garage), which is fucking insane when 3-4 years ago you couldn’t get in your car without seeing at least one yard sign or bumper sticker.
Four years ago, my wife got so much shit for being the only liberal in an office of good ol’ boys. Now, absolutely nothing. I cannot comprehend that the polling reflects none of this.
They’ve learned it leads to social isolation. I know a lot of young men learned they can’t get laid if they’re vocal about Trump. I’m not saying these people learned empathy they just learned to put the mask back on.
Do people really leave political signs up after elections, though?
Dude I saw a faded-ass ‘Bush / Cheney’ sticker on the way home today. Cult is as cult does.
Well, bumper stickers are one thing, but leaving them posted in your yard? Weird.
They still fly the flags from their lifted trucks where I live. But yeah it’s declined a lot.
I kinda want to get old bumper stickers and put them up. I wonder if I can find one for Jimmy Carter
Apparently, there were a lot around where I live too. I dont get it personally, but im not a dude who would put up a political sign to begin with.
A certain neighbor of mine does. Makes the neighborhood look ugly.
It turns out, a lot of people do feel a bit of shame for the way they vote.
Not like that they actually feel bad for fucking over so many people, but they don’t like looking like they are helping so many people getting fucked over.
don’t thread on me
Nudist trumpers?
I think trump needs to address his electability questions. He hasn’t had any interviews that properly address his issues, just scripted ones with interviewers that like him.
Just today I’ve seen people calling for him to step down so another candidate without his issues can be nominated. He’ll have to do that if voters continue to lose confidence in him.
You forgot the /s
Have you considered that they’re liars?
I understand this impulse. It is popular to demonize people on the other side, and truthfully, their voting for Trump in the past is a severe issue. They once in a while ask me for computer help, but this whole matter has made me reluctant to do it.
I’m not going to call them good people because voting for Trump has identified them as not being among those. But in some ways they’re decent? They don’t think they’re evil. They don’t stab people in the back personally. They work hard. They’re honest face-to-face. it’s mostly on the national stage that their odious beliefs are brought out.
There are lots of people like that here. I feel like, if they can be brought to see, viscerally, what the effects of their political decisions are, that could be the breaking point that changes their political beliefs. January 6th might have been one such event.
Some people still have some values. 34 felonies, rape, and paying hush money to a porn star you had sex with while your pregnant wife was at home is enough to cost some votes. I don’t care if they vote for Biden, as long as they don’t show up and vote for mr 34 felonies it’s a win for America.
Not voting for the opponent in a two-party race is like a half vote for the other guy, but wouldn’t it be nice if they came around and gave Biden a full vote each?
I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if there was a political bias between people who are and aren’t willing to answer phone calls and participate in polls.
This copium is off the charts ridiculous.
I don’t want Trump to win, which is why I think it’s incredibly unhelpful to spread the delusion that current polling is favorable to a Biden victory.
That wasn’t true before the debate, but there were enough polls that were within the margin of error that it was possible.
His polling has only gone down since then, and Trump’s has gone upwards. Not by the same margins, but still, opposite directions.
This article is actually arguing about changes of polls that are below .5%, seriously, it’s a joke…
Here is an aggregated page that links out to over 50 different polls for Georgia, one of the states mentioned in the article where Trump it’s supposedly hurting, according to that article:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-georgia.html
almost as if polls are meaningless since republicans started flooding the market with junk polls.
Yeah, dems are looking for any positive spin on this reeling campaign.
Posting 538 links here because they aren’t paywalled and are doing similar aggregating with similar results for anyone who doesn’t want to use nyt:
Just FYI, 538 today is not the same as it was when they became noteworthy. Nate Silver left the company (and its parent, Disney). He also took his models with him, since those were merely licensed (unlike the name/company).
The new 538 is being run by a guy with very questionable models.
Does Nate Silver have a new site?
Poll headlines are fucking meaningless. Each day twenty of them with completely different and contradictory conclusions come out.
Newsweek, bad selection of polls, and results are still not looking great. For goodness sake, can we please ban this news source? It’s awful and repeatedly clickbait-y.
Polls? We still think those mean shit!
Polling lead reduced…still leading
republicans were leading in the house and senate races in 2022.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is set to face the incumbent president in November, and polls have so far predicted that the results of the 2020 White House rematch will be tight—with the pair statistically tied or holding only marginal leads in a number of surveys.
However, in three swing states there are signs that Biden has marginally increased his support since participating in the first presidential debate, despite giving what was seen as a poor performance.
During the debate, Biden gave a series of incoherent and confusing responses and appeared to trail off at times without finishing his sentences.
He has since received calls from within his party to end his reelection bid and allow Democrats to install a new candidate for the general election.
Surveys like these are significant due to the Electoral College system, which awards each state a certain number of votes based on population.
But Trump only won there by 1.3 percent of the vote in 2020—his narrowest state win—and North Carolina often elects Democratic governors.
The original article contains 452 words, the summary contains 171 words. Saved 62%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
It’s pushing us into extremely weird territory to have two candidates this unpopular.
There’s no pushing. We were already in extremely weird territory when the news media can present the candidates so dishonestly that Biden is at all unpopular.
He forgave hundreds of billions of dollars in students loans, reduced income inequality for the first time in god knows how long, increased working class wages even when adjusted for historically massive inflation, raised corporate tax by a MASSIVE amount in order to fund all of the above, and also spent a trillion dollars on trying to address climate change, like the first time ever that a US presidency actually tried to do something about it in a big way, which is way too little way too late but that’s not his fault.
His opponent is a literal pants shitting moron who goes on weird tirades about toilets and windmills; even the truest of true believers often walk out of his speeches before they are finished, because they are unhinged and random and, at the end of the day, uninteresting. His campaign priorities are cartoonishly evil. Beyond cartoonish. They sound like a joke. He wants to kill foreigners, throw his political opponents in prison, and make friends with our nation’s worst enemies siding with them against American soldiers and American people. He wants to ban contraception and porn, and dismantle the Department of Education and the FDA. And the FBI. And NOAA.
And yet, somehow, the news manages to present such a distorted landscape that “Biden is old as fuck and shit the bed at the debate” is like the most relevant thing everyone is trying to talk about, even now, a month later, when it is objectively undeniable that the great mass of the Democratic electorate doesn’t give a shit about it and cares more about all that earlier stuff. As well they should. They are, surprisingly enough, not as stupid as you and the news keep consistently, relentlessly, dishonestly, pretending that they are.
I won’t say that distorted media creation won’t succeed, and get Trump elected, against whoever his opponent turns out to be. But yes, it will be extremely weird (as well as absolutely infuriating for those of us who live in America and have to experience what might happen under a second Trump presidency) how we got here and what destination we’ve arrived at.
For all your talk and posts why do you not push Chase Oliver, both sides claim third party is death, but literally every normal person I know is Fuck Biden and Fuck Trump, and no polls say either have actually support. Support is literally all tea party and blue no matter who, and these whack jobs wonder why Regular folks are angry, but its all manufactured? Inflation isnt real and the economy is the best ever, like everybody hates trump and Biden fucked that up, i have workers (poc) tell me a racist president is bad but i didnt have to budget milk for my kids, Trump was way better than Biden. But somehow people tell me this crazy? Like maybe you got alot of investments but regular folk dont care the nasdaq rose today especially when they have to tell their kids I cant
Because the reason all third parties fail is that the first-past-the-post counting of votes makes it mathematically impossible. A third party will necessarily steal more votes from one side than the other, making said other side win
And do you know anyone who wants to vote Trump Or Biden? Arguably he would only take the stay at home vote, cause idk any Biden or Trump supporters and I am screaming Chase Oliver far and wide
You forgot the part where he literally raped children and argued after the fact about who deserved to claim one of their virginities.
Allegedly.
Dude it is IMPOSSIBLE to list bad things Trump did without missing some
Hey did you know his estranged ex-wife died by falling down the stairs, and she’s buried on his property?
I’m not saying that automatically definitively means anything. But tell me one other human being on the planet who that combination of circumstances ever happened to.
Or, alternately, one other human being who was once involved with Trump for which he gives any kind of a shit any which way about where they should be buried.
I’ll wait.
and she’s buried on his property?
Wasn’t there some speculation about tax codes and cemeteries?
Crimeception
As with so many Trump things, the overlapping crimes, for whatever weird reason, actually make it more difficult to prosecute any single one.
I always thought of his administration as DDOSing the justice system.
Nah, he had her buried under his golf course so he could cheat on her one last time.
Dude it is IMPOSSIBLE to list bad things Trump did without missing some huge ones.
This right here is no fucking joke. I tried to list shit he’s done off the top of my head, and after around twenty items, i still forgot January fucking 6th. That’s like, the crown jewel, and it totally slipped my mind.
The difference is Biden unpopularity is due to uncertainty while trumps is due to EXTREME certainty that he’s a piece of garbage
There’s nothing uncertain about Biden at this point. It’s a matter of being in denial or anger.
I think what they’re getting at is that we’re uncertain the extent age will affect his duties. Will his cabinet and other advisors be really “in control,” or will Biden insist on his way forcing others to kowtow. It is certain that the dude is old as hell and if it were he alone, he would be incapable of the job. Since there’s a staff and a ton of advisors, the degree of control they have is, well, uncertain.
It’s already clear that the extent is large and growing, whether it’s dementia or Parkinson’s doesn’t really matter. He’s effectively a puppet now, and it’s not going to get better. He has minor slip ups in the completely controlled environment they try to keep him in. It’s denial to pretend it won’t get worse, or it’s not actually that bad.
I think you’re wrong, but even if you’re right, who cares? He’s got a solid team behind him.
If you’re ok with a choice of overt fascism or a blank sheet of paper that is terrifying.
If making that choice is at all difficult for you, that is terrifying.
It’s too bad there’s no plan-b if he does actually get impaired for real during his administra-- oh wait. There is.
And she’d only be more awesome if she dragged an eligible AOC in as her vice. Asses kicked, names taken.
Sir. You seem to have forgotten about inconsolable hopelessness.
I think they call that acceptance.
Biden unpopularity is due to uncertainty
Which I don’t understand. I’m certain Biden won’t institute project 2025 so the choice should be obvious.
Disclaimer this is very unlikely.
I have seen enough people grow older and senile and start acting totally out of character. People who I would have called progressive start supporting Trump because of old man brain.
Just depends what news channel they watch all day I know old people on both sides blindly taking in whatever fox/MSN/CNN tell them. Fox ones are consistently shittier but I’ve heard a few pretty bad takes coming out of the other ones too.
CNN recently got bought by MAGA garbage and is skewing right wing.
That’s because undecided voters are entirely vibes based and don’t give a shit about anything else
Worst case scenario for Biden is he’s mostly absent and his cabinet has to guide him through policies making the Democratic party mostly in control.
Which is pretty much exactly what Trump’s first term was adding in a lot of grift and pointless spite.
But that’s almost exactly what the president is supposed to do. Like forget Bidens mental state right now, just talking about any president, one of the main reasons aside from their “vision” we vote for them is for their ability to judge individuals capabilities or to have the capability of knowing how to find those people. The administration should ideally be made up of experts in their respective areas that will guide the president. He just makes the final call as to whether to listen or not, we shouldn’t expect him to know everything and to be able to work without “the administration.”
It’s one of the main reasons I loath Trump. I hate him as a person, but as a president I hate that he wants “yes men.” He doesn’t want guidance, he wants subservience to follow his will. That’s one of the bigger problems with project 2025 as well, their purity tests and seeking of more “yes men” will cripple the government as they aren’t lead by anything other than orders from above.
All that said, Biden does have to comprehend the guidance he’s being given. All we can see from Biden is how he operates behind a camera and on the spot. I don’t know if anyone has spoken about his capacity when he’s “working.” (Massive copium hit.)
For real. Also I doubt Biden will try to start a coup to stay in power
If you narrow your scope to just the presidency maybe. The real worst case scenario is he completely fails to run an effective campaign and creates a huge red wave sweeping a big group of fascists into power.
He doesn’t need a wave of them. He just needs to let this one on and it’s all over.
Again, though, see how successful humphries was in 68. Don’t change horses.
Don’t change horses.
When the horse is dead you will not ride anywhere with it, period.
At least since half a year serious people talk about the fact that Biden is becoming too old for office and shows dementia. The DNC had a good year and quite frankly they should have already planned Bidens succession the moment he got into office. It was clear on Jan 6 that they need a new generation that can inspire and has the strength to fight against the Reps.
Now with every week passing Biden will show more and more that he is an old man whose mental capacities are diminishing at an alarming rate. Staying on this horse is a guaranteed win for the Republicans. Heck, even if Biden was voted in, he’ll die of natural causes or become a vegetable within the next year. This will be a prime moment for the Reps to tear apart whatever Dem administration would try to emerge from that.
The only solution is a change of generation in the DNC. The old cabal will hand the nation over to fascism otherwise.
I think there is a world of difference between a Trump presidency with a democratic house and senate and a Republican supermajority. While both of these are unlikely, how close we are to one or the other will make a big difference in how effective the fascist takeover will be.
I personally think Trump is likely to win no matter who the candidate but having a stronger candidate will have a meaningful effect on other races that matter greatly.
Humphrey is only a single data point. We can’t draw much of a conclusion from a single event. Maybe Humphrey lost due to the nomination process but I think it’s more likely he was just a weaker candidate. Particularly regarding his pro-Vietnam war stance which was very controversial at the time.
And while there are exceptions (looking at you Garland), most of Biden’s team are pretty solid. For example, I would keep Lena Khan exactly where she is regardless of which Democrat is in charge. He’s got a lot more young smart staff than he gets credit for.
Uncertainty my ass. Joe Biden is running on an excellent record. He is running on his policies.
I am voting for him but this recession we aren’t calling a recession isn’t helping his chances
People don’t care about policies.
Yeah, that’s very well stated.
If it weren’t for the political realities of how voting works under first-past-the-post, the progressive wing of the Democratic party could have easily split off into a separate party whose younger leadership and willingness to push for actually-meaningful change could probably have run circles around the Dems at this point.
…Man, I really wish I could vote for a presidential candidate that I actually believed in, instead of this “vote for the status-quo neoliberal or democracy dies” bullshit.
in Georgia, he has increased his share of the vote by 0.9 percent since the debate, though the Republican Party is still ahead by 3.5 percent.
In Michigan, he has increased his vote share by 0.8 percent making him ahead of Trump by 0.4 percent, and in North Carolina he has also increased his vote share by 0.8 percent, though the Republicans are still ahead by 4 percent.
It feels like the difference is within the margin of error, but I have no clue since they didn’t cite the new poll or the old poll they are comparing it to.
I just can’t believe in any pole that uses landline telephones or any telephones really. Because, who answers an unknown call?
Old conservatives do. All these polls have samples that are biased against young people and mobile phones. Error bounds have increased as smart phones increased their adoption.
Exactly.
I bet these polls are within a couple points of the reality, as they pretty much always have been (even in the era of cell phones). They specifically weight the results based on the expected non-response of various groups. They account for the most obvious objection that anybody could raise about a modern poll (this one).
You can’t use weighting to correct a fundamentally biased sample. Don’t you remember 2016 when pollsters predicted Hillary would win? Trump voters were intentionally not giving their true opinion (or not answering the questions).
It’s the same now, with Biden voters. Trump voters were embarrassed in 2016 but Biden voters are embarrassed now. So they don’t show up in polls.
The polls in 2016 were largely on target. Clinton won the popular vote by roughly the predicted margin and the few key swing states that lost her the race had results that were largely within the margin of error. Lots of people took 2016 as an indication that polling is no longer good. That’s the wrong lesson to learn from 2016; it just doesn’t match the facts.
