Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.

The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:

  • 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.

  • 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.

  • 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.

    • Bernie_Sandals@lemmy.world
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      4 months ago

      I’m a Gen Z’er from the deep south, unions were never mentioned in our education once, neither was the labor movement, they learned what a union was from me, and the first time I ever learned of the concept of a union was from Wikipedia.

      It’s definitely working, way too fucking well.

  • Treczoks@lemmy.world
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    4 months ago

    Maybe the commercal and financial Egonomy is on the rise. But the private economy of the average citizen is nof.

  • themeatbridge@lemmy.world
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    4 months ago

    You need to ask yourself why? If unemployment is low and the economy is growing, then why are 3 in 5 struggling? If you have a room with 100 people and 100 pizzas, statistically the room has plenty of food. If 60 of the people complain that they are hungry, you wouldn’t scoff and tell them, “stop complaining, look at all the statistical pizza in the room! Things are actually quite good for everyone.” Sure, maybe some are falling for propaganda, but propaganda doesn’t get you 3 out of 5 people.

    • dhork@lemmy.world
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      4 months ago

      It might be that, because of the new gig economy, the number of shitty jobs has increased. Unemployment might be low, but “underemployment” might be high (if there is a way to even track that at all). I bet there are a lot of people who feel trapped in their jobs right now, and that doesn’t help consumer confidence.

  • dhork@lemmy.world
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    4 months ago

    It is legitimately such a weird economy, because by all the standard broad metrics it is doing fine, but on an individual basis it varies widely. Cost of living has shot up with inflation, but wages generally didn’t go up to match, particularly for people who kept the same employer throughout the Pandemic until now.

    The only metric that is important is how far their paycheck goes, and it simply doesn’t go as far anymore.

    • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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      4 months ago

      It is legitimately such a weird economy, because by all the standard broad metrics it is doing fine, but on an individual basis it varies widely.

      I took some pretty high level statistical analysis courses back in the day, with a professor who is about as close to “rockstar” as someone can be in the field of statistical analysis.

      One thing he always said was that it was easy to paint a picture exactly the way someone wants while being 100% honest and reporting real numbers.

      What was hard, was picking thru all the numbers, identifying trends, and quantifying the effects and how likely a bunch of changes would play out to predict future outcomes.

      Our economy runs on “numbers must go up”.

      If a CEO of a publicly traded company says anything other than “Shits amazing!” The numbers go down.

      Because stock prices are really just investors opinion, real life doesn’t have much effect on the economy.

      So everyone cheats a little (or a lot) to make their numbers seem like everything is great. Do a meta analysis on those numbers, and it looks like everyone is doing great.

      But it’s all just because no one wants to be the one to say it’s not.

      Because in our economy, if people think things are bad, then that makes things bad. People sell stocks and hide money under mattresses (what the rich do with offshore accounts) and that Cascades I to not enough money to buy anything. And then not enough sales to employ people.

      It’s a feedback loop that the only way to prevent is constantly telling people everything is fine.

      The longer we let 0.01% of the population hoard insane wealth, the more we risk the death spiral

      It’s getting to the point where they have so much, they’re the entire economy. If they decide to just bury all their gold, we’re fucked.

      So we have to keep making these rich assholes think everything is great and numbers will always go up.

      Or just tax their fucking wealth…

  • OpenStars@discuss.online
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    4 months ago

    I find it so sad to see The Guardian of all news organizations join in on this bUt ThE eCoNoMy ThO bullshit. Fortunately it looks simply like a poorly written article, but that’s little comfort for the damaging effects it will have regardless, e.g. in my trust of The Guardian articles henceforth.

    Also, it’s not just that, when it combines clickbait headlines with the first half of the article working to obfuscate the Truth with correct but irrelevant facts - beatings will continue until moral improves - even if the second half tries to sound more balanced. Is Fox News going to be the goal now, even if only for the first half of every article, going forward?

    Average people, who don’t own stock (or if they do, don’t rely on it as their primary source of income) could care less about bUt ThE eCoNoMy ThO or even the theoretical underpinnings of inflation, and care far more about their current job security and cost of actual food. Whether the proper term of “recession” applies or if it instead is some other word that should be used to describe it, either way the economy is “not good”, so hyper-focusing on uneducated people not knowing the technical definition of “recession” doesn’t seem to be helping the situation any? Even if it sells advertising space for this article:-(.

    The AutoTL;DR summary, with no title and much of the rage-baiting removed, is much better than the actual article.

  • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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    4 months ago

    The issue is voters talk about how regular people are doing, while politicians talk about “the economy” which is rich people and business…

    For them, shits going great. Because their record profits are coming from regular Americans being priced gouged.

    Also, I stopped reading when the article clearly couldn’t understand inflation compliants.

    The poll underscored people’s complicated emotions around inflation. The vast majority of respondents, 72%, indicated they think inflation is increasing. In reality, the rate of inflation has fallen sharply from its post-Covid peak of 9.1% and has been fluctuating between 3% and 4% a year.

    In April, the inflation rate went down from 3.5% to 3.4% – far from inflation’s 40-year peak of 9.1% in June 2022 – triggering a stock market rally that pushed the Dow Jones index to a record high.

    The inflation rate is slowly going down. But it’s a rate, prices are still up and continuing to go up. That 9.1% from 2022 is still baked into the 3% increase we’re experiencing.

    Like. Say it was 100, 9% increase makes it 109. 3% of 109 is more than 3% of 9%.

    It’s compounded

    So the inflation rate should go down but it’s not like that means lower prices, it just means 1% increase now is more than a 1% increase in the past.

    And that’s not even getting into the harsh truth about inflation and capitalism:

    A lack of inflation means people save money. That takes money out of circulation. A lot of our problems are because the wealthy do that with huge sums.

    If enough money gets taken out of circulation then it leads to a recession as there’s less money floating around and changing hands.

    We need inflation to prop up this bullshit economic system the wealthy are obsessed with.

  • just_another_person@lemmy.world
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    4 months ago

    Polling isn’t going to change people’s minds about it FEELING like a recession. It certainly feels like anyone who owns or controls any sort of economic production is on a cash-grab bender, jacking up prices on absolutely everything, and finding new ways to exploit the populace while the getting is good. People can’t afford the basic staples of life. It FEELS pretty dire.

  • Th4tGuyII@kbin.social
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    4 months ago

    Isn’t this the same old “ThE eCoNoMy Is DoInG gReAt, WhY aRe YoU cOmPlAiNiNg?” BS as always?

    The average person doesn’t care how well the rich people’s game is going if they’re struggling to afford their groceries because of said rich people’s game.

  • Suavevillain@lemmy.world
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    4 months ago

    People can’t afford rent and food. The most Biden has done to address the corporate greed and price gouging is telling them to knock it off lol. The attempts at trying to gaslight people into believing the economy is good won’t work.

  • Sabata11792@kbin.social
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    4 months ago

    Corpo say economy is great because green line. I went from $200 for a month of food to $400 while losing 30 pounds. Retirement is fiction. I even got a new job paying double of what my old job was just to stay stagnant.

    There not playing the same game as us.

  • HubertManne@kbin.social
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    4 months ago

    We are obviously not currently in a recession but the economy is not great for regular folks, however it has not been since like the 90’s.

  • Today@lemmy.world
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    4 months ago

    I have a friend with whom i disagree on most issues. They were recently complaining about how bad the economy is, how expensive food is, and that their family can’t afford to eat beef. They have a large house, they’ve been paying an extra $1000-2000 per month on their mortgage for the last two years, and they invited 2 adult children to move home so the kids could save money for houses. They watch Fox News (or worse) and believe they’re struggling. I pointed out some cheap chicken and other items in a grocery ad and the response was, “but those are just the things that are on sale; everything else is expensive.” I was stunned - almost everything i buy is on sale. Yes…you’re right…the wagyu costs more than it used to.

    My kids also complain, “Our grocery bill is twice what it was two years ago!” Maybe because you’re now spending $75/wk in protein shakes and supplements?

    I’m not saying that people aren’t struggling or that they shouldn’t be able to buy things they want, but the people who complain the loudest (in my experience) are not the ones who are in the most difficult situations.

    • iamdisillusioned@lemmy.world
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      4 months ago

      My conservative parents have also been complaining about the economy and their financial situation. In April they spent 4k to get a box at a baseball game and asked me for money to pay for it, citing that its a special spend to celebrate my dad’s 60th birthday. Then last week I found out that they are going on a 16k eastern European river cruise this summer. Talk about temporarily embarrassed millionaires.

    • AA5B@lemmy.world
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      4 months ago

      My kids also complain ….

      Yeah, I really feel this. My kids are teens and one is actively lifting/bulking, so food goes so much faster now, and foods with lean protein (so much chicken) are much more expensive than a reasonable amount of veggies and carbs to help fill up

      A decade or two ago I would really tease a couple friend of ours for preparing meals like “steak on a plate” instead of something more nutritionally balanced and with healthier fat choices. Now my one kid wants “chicken on a plate”, twice as much chicken and nothing else

    • AA5B@lemmy.world
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      4 months ago

      Lots of bad news from media milking outrage for views and clicks, in the name of News

      • Cyborganism@lemmy.ca
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        4 months ago

        Nah. More like employers/companies making it sound like their CEO is almost outside on the sidewalk begging for money for the company when it’s time for a end of year salary review or when negociating salaries when applying for a job.

      • CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world
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        4 months ago

        I did like to see that Jon Stewart countered a recent author about how Gen Z has it the worst of any generation, ever, even if ever so gently. However, that author (John Della Volpe) was definitely old enough to know better - I think he is a boomer or Gen X - and I’m glad Jon didn’t just let him blow smoke the entire interview. Jon came back with some boomer trauma that they went through; I often reflect on the kind of trauma those that can remember the Great Depression or WWII might have had.

        The point is that every generation has trauma and the clickbait type of stuff about how this or that generation is somehow magically different or some inflection point is just kind of silly in the broader context.

    • CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world
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      4 months ago

      IIRC, wages have been flat to down since the 1970s, so it’s likely this cuts across many generations, from the “greatest generation” on, and soon including generation alpha.

      • Cyborganism@lemmy.ca
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        4 months ago

        It hasn’t been felt until the millennials, for sure. That’s when the rifts really started to widen. Around the early 2000’s

        • CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world
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          4 months ago

          Eh, that’s not my experience. I saw what corporate downsizing and Ronnie Raygunism did to the boomers and some of their parents’ generation during the 80s. Many of us Gen Xers were very cynical about corporations as a result of early 90s recession (though some may have later forgot those lessons) and the growing corporate rule and the rise of things like Manpower and temp work - many of us chuckled when we saw the usual suspects rebranding this as the “gig economy” as if this was a good thing for workers.

          Of course, many of our generation got burned, and burned hard, by the boom/bust cycles like the dot-com bubble and the real-estate speculation that came after. But then, so did older and younger generations.

          When the poor and middle class suffers, it’s not like just one set of people that happened to be born between certain years and are lumped into one group (mostly for marketing purposes, by the way) are the only ones affected.

          As someone else points out here, though, for the first time in a long time, though, real wages have gone up in the very recent past. If that is a trend, it would be a reversal of literally decades of it not going up. I suspect it is not, being the cynic I am, and eyeing things like AI and the automation it is/will be enabling. I also think the uptick is partly a result of Covid and the powers that be seek to reverse any gains ASAP.

  • jmanes@lemmy.world
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    4 months ago

    Any working class person living in the elements of this economy will tell you it is not good; cherry-picked indicators in these reports be damned. When the people tell you they are hurting in numbers this large, leaders must listen, not ignore.

    • AA5B@lemmy.world
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      4 months ago

      But how can they tell, if all the indicators are good? How can they even figure out a solution if all the indicators don’t point to a problem?

      • OccamsRazer@lemmy.world
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        4 months ago

        They can start by developing indicators that actually work, instead of indicators that make them look good.

        • mozz@mbin.grits.dev
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          4 months ago

          What indicators do you think would be accurate? I can probably find them for almost any metric

          • Jentu@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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            4 months ago

            Corporations showing record profits tells me that it’s harder for everyday people. Record profits means cut hours, stagnated wages, outsourced labor, more expensive goods, “shrinkflation”, cheaper components, dialed back safety standards, crunch, making salaried employees perma-lance so they don’t have to worry about benefits anymore, ghost job postings that are never intended on being filled because being understaffed is the new normal, etc. And then corporations use that record profit to bribe the government into keeping it just as shitty as it is or making it worse for us.

            The system is working as intended to siphon as much money and labor as it can from workers and consumers so the metrics focus on that. Then they have the nerve to tell us that we’re being crazy for thinking that things are getting difficult.

      • AlwaysNowNeverNotMe@kbin.social
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        4 months ago

        As soon as something becomes a metric, it ceases to be a functional metric.

        It’s a confidence game, so they can’t blab about the score.