- cross-posted to:
- world@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- world@lemmy.world
Ukrainian forces staged an overnight ambush on a Russian convoy 25 miles inside the international border in Russia’s Kursk province, as the Kremlin declared a federal emergency and said it was transferring extra forces to try to snuff out a four-day incursion that has badly damaged its credibility.
A video circulated by Russian military bloggers showed a destroyed convoy, with bodies just visible inside some trucks, on the E38 east-west highway at Oktyabrskoe, a location far deeper inside Russia than any previously confirmed fighting since Ukraine’s forces crossed the border on Tuesday.
Commentators said the attack, reminiscent of Ukrainian attacks on Russian troops besieging Kyiv in the first weeks of the war, demonstrated an effective hit-and-run strategy, but the incursion appeared likely to draw an escalating response from the Kremlin, and its overall outcome remains profoundly uncertain.
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If only there was a way to stop this
but the incursion appeared likely to draw an escalating response from the Kremlin, and its overall outcome remains profoundly uncertain.
That’s the entire point. Force the Russians to over commit. Then pull back. Depending on how involved the Ukrainians want the area to be they might stick to raiding. Or they could be digging in hard behind the raiding right now, making ready to make the Russians pay dearly for every inch. But either way they know it’s temporary.
Unless the Russians fuck it up so badly the Ukrainians don’t need to leave.
Well if the Russian playbook is the same, they will have to raze their own villages to get them back.
Even if they now activate conscripts to do this, the casualty rate will be high and involve people from all over Russia. So the Russian public will be made aware of the costs.
And Ukranians can do what they do on the eastern front, pull back in defensive manner and concede ground in a controlled manner. Forcing the Russians to remain on the offensive when they actually cannot anymore.
I personally think the Russians are overcommitted already, cannibalizing everything everywhere. We will now see what they can muster from what is left.
Well we know they have internal reserves because they have troops elsewhere on the border with NATO and the capital guard they always keep back in case of a wild Wagner.
Force the {enemy} to over commit. Then pull back.
As used to stunning effect in Vietnam. And Afghanistan. And Afghanistan. And Afghanistan. And Afghanistan.
No ambush.
Surprise readiness test.
No incursion.
Special surprise timeshare operations.
use its armoured vehicles to head towards Russian positions and use a third of them to tie down the defenders while the rest were “bypassing it, entering nearby settlements and setting up ambushes”
The mythical Deep Battle strategy actually being used?
Fucking love this. Think about it:
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While Russia concentrates defenses in the southern Donetsk region, Ukraine simply pushes forward into Russia itself and grabs easy land. Like squeezing a balloon, the bulge finds the least resistance.
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It causes domestic unrest and panic.
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It forces Russia to spread thinner their already-thin resources.
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It gives Ukraine a bargaining-chip at the negotiating table.
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It helps nullify net-territorial gains made by Russia elsewhere.
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It gives Ukrainian forces a boost of morale.
- Putin makes a big deal out of how fighting in Ukraine is by volunteers and contained so that “regular russians” are safe. This fight goes on in areas defended by conscripted soldiers, breaking that safety layer.
If the aggression against Ukraine is maintained by Russian volunteer forces and Russia has to relocate them now, it means that there are no conscripts to use.
Using conscripts pretty much means that Putin admits that it never was a special military operation with 3-4 days to take Kiev. It pretty much sends signals to the Russian people that he is far from being in control and able to contain the situation.
Using conscripts pretty much means that Putin admits that it never was a special military operation with 3-4 days to take Kiev.
The fact that it’s almost 900 days later also suggests this.
Ukraine took hundreds of prisoners so far, and a fair share of that probably are conscripts. That already is a bit of a mess he’ll have to solve.
Putin makes a big deal out of how fighting in Ukraine is by volunteers
How true even is that? My understanding is that they’ve been throwing conscripts at the front the entire war.
Mobilized troops, not the same as conscripts by Russian law. Mobilized troops can be any age but are usually older with prior military service (see below). Most of them have jobs and part of the workforce proper, don’t live with their parents except incases of poverty or family health issues. IIRC the last mobilization Russia did, the average age was 28 but that number lilely isn’t accurate. Mobilizations are also targetted to minorities and very rural regions of Russia away from Moscow and St Petersburg.
Conscripts on the other hand, are specifically 18-20 year olds with mandatory military service after high school. Almost all of them lived with their parents before military service and usually stay in close touch with families by tradition. In the 80s conscripts were used in the war in Afghanistan, and high percentage of casualties were these 18-20 year olds from densely populated areas, which caused such a public backlash even the Soviet Union was forced pull put from the war and as result of that Russia sees it as a taboo for conscripts to be used for anything but national defense and training during peace time, though in the case of formal declaration of war they would certainly be used on the fronts. Some people have gone as far as to say there is an actual law about that but I honestly don’t know of thats true or just culturual taboo (and given how Russia operates a cultural taboo is much stronger than any law.)
Kremlin and specifically Putin have gone out of their way to define the entire Ukraine War as a special military operation and not a war as a means of appeasing the citizens they care about (urban Russians) and using volunteer/professional soldiers and mobilized minorities instead. Now that Russian soil is in danger, its possible we’ll see conscripts being relocated to defend those fronts, but even that is sketchy because of the taboo along with it being an open secret that conscript forces have terrible abbreviated training meant more to be a primer for further training at a later date rather than a set of skills that will keep them alive and make them efficient soldiers in the army. Most of them probably never actually fired a weapon more than once or twice, so against a battlehardenrd army like Ukraine those conscripts would get outmaneuvered and likely mowed down, hence why we’ve seen so many Russian units on the defensive lines surrender after first contact. They are poorly trained, have now experience, and their corrupt chain of command probably was awol or ran away the second they heard Ukrainians were approaching their lines, leaving a bunch of 18-20 year olds doing mandatory service and substandard gear being told to defense against a veteran force with NATO supplied gear and armored vehicles. All the smart ones, all the cowards and anyone else left over not brainwashed enough to want to die for the motherland surrendered in droves once shots got fired.z
It also allows Ukraine to continue playing defensively now that they have the territory which has shown to be a good strategy so far for bleeding Russia of troops and equipment.
But for how long…
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How long until China simply attacks Russia and absorbs 50%+ of their land mass?
China won’t attack Russia. They’ll simply start moving there and gaslight that it’s Chinese land.
Literally Texas
China has zero interest in harming Russia at this stage. The US and its allies are investing massive resources in Ukraine, so is Russia. Russia needs chinas goodwill and tech to keep going, that’s a win. The US can’t use the money it puts into Ukraine into the pacific, that’s another win.
China is happy if everything stays as it is
I dont understand, why doesn’t Ross, the largest of the friends, not simply eat the other friends?
There’s probably some plan for that depending on how much chaos occurs when Putin croaks. Their objectives will likely include securing as many nukes as possible. Land mass will be secondary.
it’s sounds almost like a Finnish guerrilla ”motti-tactic” which was used in Winter War against soviets. Hit and run and they even didnt know what hit them. In motti tactic you hit a convoy in a position where they can’t escape.
Rybar, a Russian military blogger, said Ukraine’s tactics were to use its armoured vehicles to head towards Russian positions and use a third of them to tie down the defenders while the rest were “bypassing it, entering nearby settlements and setting up ambushes”.
If I were the Ukrainians, I’d send more reinforcements and keep the beachhead up. Russia can have their land back when they give back the parts of Ukraine they illegally annexed in 2014 and 2021.
I read that this attack isn’t meant to keep the territory occupied and is more of wake up call for the Russians.
For why? What does that achieve?
IDK anything about military strategy but surely this type of attack forces Russia to re-deploy.
As in, they can’t have as many troops in offensive positions because they need to defend their own borders.
It’s like the neighborhood bully is out slapping around all the smaller kids until he realizes a few of them snuck into his house and are putting their balls all over his prized drum set.
Yeah, the Kremlin has to look strong right now, so they need to scramble to put together a force to deal with this, and the Russian army isn’t nimble.
Putin and his Kremlin stooges has to avoid windows now. Finally!
Maybe that the plan and stopping the oil line to Hungary to pressure them is how they think they will get in the EU.
As a completely uncredentialed internet commenter, this looks like true maneuver warfare in action. The goal is destroying the ability of enemy forces rather than capturing territory. A subtle but important distinction. Any territory taken should be in furtherance of the main goal, and if holding the territory distracts from that it is to be abandoned.
(If numbers are anything close to believable) this has been happening inside Ukraine where defensible positions are held by Ukrainians to cause huge losses to attacking Russian forces, yet the Ukrainians don’t immediately press the local advance often to take back disputed territory. A big exception was Ukraine’s initial, and I think it will come out as disastrous armored offensive early in the war, probably a result of over confidence in thinking they’d whittled down the Russian forces that early. Looks like lessons learned as Ukraine has become much more cautious of large scale offensives. I believe last year they were assaulting Russian defensive lines inside Ukraine but (if numbers are to be believed) they were inflicting more losses on the defenders than they were taking, which is insane for assaulting static positions. Russia seems to have held those positions by simply pouring fresh troops into them over and over, sacrificing men to prevent the lines on the map from moving. Years of those kinds of losses seem to be at the point where Russia can’t pivot to defend itself in any kind of reasonable time. Even if the Ukrainians pull out, the damage by showing what they are able to do is done.
In a funny twist, at least from the snippets of news reporting (which I stress we should always be willing to rethink) it sounds like the Ukraine incursion is using a sort of variant of “deep battle” by bypassing enemy defenses with the majority of its forces. This is funny because early in the war the massive Russian tank losses from their disorganized dollar store thunder run were explained as expected deep battle losses by pro-Russians on the internet.
that has badly damaged its credibility.
People should REALLY stop using that word when you mean perceived military strength!
Military strength isn’t credibility and the Russian government isn’t credible no matter how well or how badly its army of fascists and forced conscripts is performing.
They also have very little perceived military strength at this point, right? Apart from their nukes I guess.
Yeah, and even Putin isn’t actually crazy enough to do anything with those but THREATENING to use them.
I read it as credibility with Russia’s citizens. They believed that their government will prevent any attack coming to Russian soil.
Yes, this is how I understood it too. Putin is only in power because the leaders and citizens believe he is a strong leader. Allowing the enemy to strike so far into Russian territory weakens that credibility and risks someone removing him.
My, how the fucking turn tables
Risky move. How russians will retaliate?
By counter attacking? Which I’m sure the Ukrainians are ready for? This is already a war.
You mean retaliate more than bombing schools and hospitals like they’ve been doing for the last two years? Kidnapping children and slaughtering civilians?
They don’t have any non nuclear retaliation options they’re not already using, and nuclear is a profoundly bad idea.
Although, they could technically use the on their own territory now. It would still likely be an international response, and devastate their own country.
But Putin has bombed apartments for his own gain, I could see him nuke his own land for it too.
Same way they always retaliate against superior force. Terror bombing.
That’s the point, how will they indeed?
This forces Russia into a real dilemma. They can’t just obliterate the Ukrainians with artillery, since doing so would destroy their own oil distribution hub and cut off their own income. They also can’t not do it, since this is a major fiasco, and it becomes worse as time goes by.
So indeed, how will the Russians retaliate? All the risk is on their side now.
Meanwhile Ukraine can use heavy artillery to defend things like the gas exchange making it a uneven match up.
Defensive bonus + artillery advantage
I heard Russia may move to invade Ukraine in response to this risky move.
Oh that’s right. Cause it’s “military exercises” that are happening right now yes?
I also heard that it would just take them 3-4 days to secure Kiev…
They’ll probably nuke themselves.
At least blow up the pipeline while “liberating” it.
Complain at the UN about how this is totally unfair and they’re not allowed to do that?
That is not a joking suggestion; I predict that sometime next week, that exact thing will happen.
I thought they more or less already did that? Although perhaps not at the UN.
They’ve already been making out that it’s an unacceptable act of aggression by Ukraine.
Next up:
- someone falls out a window
- Putin with mysterious illness, photos of him sitting many metres away across a stupidly long table.
- they will launch the nukes if other countries don’t stop supporting Ukraine.
Hmm, seems like it didn’t after all. They are too busy scrambling their defenses and trying to tell their own people that everything is normal.
They did. Everyone just ignored it.
!remindme 1 week
Yes hello
Good bot!
Your faith in the fleshed out ness of the Lemmy bot ecosystem is an inspiration to us all
There’s no way that works.
!remindme 1 week
I try.
At least the cake day bot seems to be working.
Happy cake day and many pleasant returns!
you tagged a community, remindme bot doesn’t seem to exist, and even if it did federation would brick it half of the time
answer is already there, don’t even try beeping at me
What is certain is russia can no longer ignore their lightly defended border drawing resources from their occupation.
The Guardian - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)
Information for The Guardian:
MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: Medium - Factual Reporting: Mixed - United Kingdom
Wikipedia about this sourceSearch topics on Ground.News
The guardian - credibility medium 🤦♂️
Fox news gets the same credibility rating of “mixed” as the guardian, which should tell you all that you need to know about the credibility of the mbfc site.
Also note that apparently the AP wire is a leftist rag.
wtf. What is it with this bot
If I had to guess the mods are getting a payment for pass through clicks or have some weird sense of superiority from feeling like they only read centrist publications that they have decided to push on everyone else.
But I’m going with the first cause they have given no reason not to think that.
I blocked it. It makes Lemmy life better. I use Jerboa and blocking is easy and it works well.
It would help if they’d stop failing fact checks by using unreliable sources. If you click the MBFC link and then scroll down to the “failed fact checks” section you’ll find several references (including sourcing) to this.
Yeah you can find all of their FIVE failed fact checks in the last 5 years, most of them consisting in simply reporting on what other seemingly believable sources such as other news outlets or NGOs had said. The outrage ! It’s basically British Fox News /s
Click through and read the full report on those fact check fails. I get that you like The Guardian but ignoring their factual fails just means your are blinding yourself.
I did, that’s how I could summarize what they’re actually about. Now if you think those failings should add up to the same factual reporting rating than Fox News…
This bot is a disservice, moderator should take it down.
Medium? It’s a British broadsheet, they actually have standards. Most of them are credible (unlike the tabloids like the Mail or the Scum).
Wolverines!
I have to say, this is both incredibly impressive and absolutely fascinating. After such a long stalemate, it’s wonderful to see Ukraine make such progress towards repelling their invaders.
