538’s win projections aren’t really based on current polling or really current events at all, that’s why nothing’s moved despite crazy things happening in the race. They’ve got some other fundamentals in the model that makes them think it’s all going to revert to norm and Democrats will win, but it’s just their own guesswork, not anything particularly well supported.
538’s win projections aren’t really based on current polling or really current events at all, that’s why nothing’s moved despite crazy things happening in the race. They’ve got some other fundamentals in the model that makes them think it’s all going to revert to norm and Democrats will win, but it’s just their own guesswork, not anything particularly well supported.
Assassination attempts don’t correlate with wins per se. Neither does debate performance.