Polls are crap
It’s a little bit notable how they change over time, but mostly it is just a bunch of poor methodology noise
But, I do feel it’s relevant to point out that even in polling land Biden has been gaining for the last few weeks and it’s notable which media outlets are pretending it is the opposite of that (like severely the opposite) and to wonder why that is
Gave up on FiveThirtyEight after 2016. Once again, it’s all about turnout.
If I am remembering correctly then fivethirtyeight gave him a ~33% chance of winning, which was absolutely within the realm of possibility
I think it may have been around 20%, but 1 out of 5 is still reasonable.
2016 was what gave FiveThirtyEight credibility. They’d given the highest chance to Trump, IIRC, out of the aggregators.
Fun fact: After firing Nate Silver from 538, Disney dumped their whole model and replaced it with one that always shows Biden winning. Nate Silver is still using the pre-this year’s rigged model, and Biden’s down to like 20% odds.
Oh wow, I didn’t know he left. I’m going to trust 538 much less.
Just take 538 in aggregate.
Nate Silver still forecasts. You’re not losing anything.
Where does Silver publish his model?
The results are on a paid blog. At least I’m not aware of it being available anywhere for free. He posts on formerly Twitter, though.
This one?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Show Biden behind, but not down to 20%. Why lie about that?
That page looks to only show polls and has the actual model paywalled?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/what-democrats-should-do-next – “In our model, Biden has fallen from a 35 percent chance against Trump before the debate to 28 percent now.”
That’s from July 3rd…
You think he’s doing exponentially better since then? The trend seems to be downward…
The same source shows that Biden is up 2% since the 3rd, and a bit more over the past 10 days.
It is July. There is August, September and October.
Do not believe the polls! Prepare to VOTE! Tell others to VOTE!
There is no leaning back or relieve until November 5.
Do not believe the medias polls. Especially not Newsweek.
GO OUT AND VOTE!
Just requested my absentee ballot yesterday.
If you can vote by mail, do it. Avoid the intimidation at the lines if you can.
But if you can’t, go in groups. Take as long as necessary, do not be deterred
Even if your presidential vote does not matter, you also vote for down ballot candidates. They are the ones that have the biggest influence on your life. Your state senator can write laws to protect you or harm you. Your town’s sheriff gets to decide if your local police officer should be fired and who should be hired instead.
Vermin Supreme 2024!
Just vote, doesn’t matter the polls.
Oh but Biden / Trump has enough vote to win
So? Add another vote.
Vote in numbers too large to manipulate.
100% agree
GO OUT AND VOTE!
I refuse to go out and vote.
Because I’m getting a mail-in ballot.
I would strongly suggest voting in-person if you happen to live in one of the swing states that has been clamping down on absentee ballots.
Thankfully, I’m not. But that’s good advice.
Why? Does he have some bad qualities?
Idk… someone asked him recently, and he could only rattle one off the top of his head.
Jesus Christ
No of course not. He’s an angel who respects all people and the law.
Trump’s margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina
Florida is a swing state? Ha, good one!
Polls currently have it closer than it’s been in a while. Biden might not win there, but more competitive battlegrounds means more voters, and more voters is good for democracy.
The anti abortion people figured this out 40 years ago, and they kept pushing for 40 years, and look they got their victory, against impossible odds.
The fairly normal things the left wants to do would be a lot easier to achieve if we could display the same level of stubbornness.
It’s hard to be stubborn about politics when the closest thing we have to an ally shares most of its campaign financiers with the enemy.
Biden: A trillion dollars spent on climate change, student loan forgiveness, huge increase in corporate tax to pay for all of that, income inequality is dropping, support for unions, basically the country moving 1% in the right direction for the first time since IDK Carter or something
Trump: Let’s shoot all the Mexicans
Lemmy: They’re the same picture
Lets compare apples to apples, shall we?
Trump: Let’s shoot all the Mexicans
Biden: No asylum for “illegal immigrants”, the border patrol gets even more money now, and we’ll waive environmental regulations to build the wall through the habitats of endangered species.
With friends like these, who needs enemies?
Just like a non stop avalanche of bad faith bullshit from you guys, huh
I dealt with the immigration issue at a lot more length back in my comments from a while ago; I don’t really want to dig it back up and copy paste it, because what’s the point. But short summary, you’re wrong.
And what if I am wrong?
Quibbling about minor differences in policy isn’t going to convince non-voters to vote.
If we can’t be honest about the Dem’s weak position in this election then we’ll never be able to change the course of future history.
Lots of people are tired of culture war bullshit. Not the diehards, but the moderates. All they see are library book bans while their home insurance prices going up 5x.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Donald Trump’s chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls.
It comes after a Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that Trump’s margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina.
In a post on their website, FiveThirtyEight said their latest predictions can be explained by the flurry of swing-state polls that show Biden is encroaching upon Trump’s lead.
In the week before the shooting, national polls had Trump as the favorite to win the White House, leading narrowly in the six key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
An ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post poll released Thursday found Biden and Trump are tied among registered voters.
Biden’s fitness for office has been called into question since his shaky debate performance against Trump in June in which he muddled his words and appeared to lose his train of thought.
The original article contains 683 words, the summary contains 168 words. Saved 75%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
I always believe that these articles are written by Republicans, in order to convince people that Biden doesn’t need their vote.
I can never believe that news has biased people and goals. It’s pathetic, as news should be reporting on issues and stating facts
I live in a mostly Republican district that will inevitably vote Trump, I am still voting against Trump no matter what, regardless of what any polling says. American democracy as we know it ends if Trump wins
There’s a fair possibility that lots of “mostly republican” districts are relying on voter apathy to stay mostly republican. Good on ya for doing your part!
Don’t forget the voter suppression efforts! Make sure you’re registered, because the fascists are going to challenge as many as possible.
Obviously the only poll that matters is the actual election, and that’s months away, and anything can happen, and everyone needs to do their part no matter what.
That said, I would expect Trump’s numbers to slide a bit from time to time as we get closer to the election. The closer we get to November, the more we’ll see independent and apathetic voters start to pay a little bit of attention, and there is just so much not to like with Trump. The MAGA-dominated GOP is incredibly myopic about how their views will be seen by the average American living outside the right wing echo chamber.
And as much as it would help them, I don’t think Republicans will be able to pretend to be moderate or sensible, even for the sake of the election. There is a perverse incentive to be as extreme as possible in order to gain support from other extremists and win influence on the right, but that behavior drags the party as a whole down when it is seen by anyone who isn’t already part of the base. For example, MTG gets national support and tons of media attention despite being a representative for a little rural district that no one gives a fuck about, all because she is a loud and controversial extremist. Anyone who moderates their tone or stops themselves from saying the quiet part out loud will lose influence to those who proudly proclaim their awfulness.
None of this is to say that victory is assured. Hell, I’m not even saying it’s likely (nor am I saying that it’s unlikely). I’m just saying that I think that there’s good reason to expect Trump’s poll numbers to dip from time to time.
Don’t care. Just vote.
Yup, only one thing affects his chances of winning, and that’s voters in swing states. If all the ones that don’t like him vote for Biden, he’ll lose easily. If they don’t, he has a good chance to win.
These headlines/news never reach republicans. We are in two complete different Internets.
These kind of “we got this, easy win, lol” polls and headlines are propaganda to make democrats feel “lazier” or not even “try at all”, because they make a lot of them believe that “yeah, why go vote? Can stay home and enjoy it here. As you can see, we are going to easily win anyway. We don’t need to try!..”
STOP FALLING FOR THESE HEADLINES, THEY SHOULDN’T EVEN EXIST
Remind me what 538 was predicting the last time Trump won
Trump had a near 30% chance per their analysis, which is pretty significant
Edit: so yeah a higher chance this time wouldn’t be great
I only trust the casinos at this point. What are the current odds?
Lol, although they’re probably as accurate as any poll.
Casinos are only worried about the juice, they could care less about the outcome of a bet.
Honestly, casinos have a reason to try to get it right. When pollsters get it wrong nothing really happens. I more or less agree with the logic of just looking at the casino odds as as much of a thing to trust as anything else.
Also, it’s apparently illegal to bet on the presidential election in the US, which I didn’t know.
Betus is giving 2:1 odds on the Democrat, I.e. they think the Democrats have a 33% chance to win.
Polls for a close race are never going to be great. That’s just how statistics works.
America is fairly split down the middle nationally, and winning or losing can come down to who gets people to turnout on election night in a couple purple states.
Even with Clinton V Trump, the polls were not wrong. They showed a close race, and 538 literally said that it was a 4 sided die roll with Trump on a side.
There are about 5 polls that actually matter in this election.
Pennsylvania (whoever wins this will likely take all), Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
Georgia, North Carolina, and Minnesota might matter but I don’t see much chance of them voting Blue, Blue, or Red respectively.
Wherever you are, just go vote to make the House as blue as you can. Mark down the democratic nominee for president while you’re there.
And even in those places, Trump supporters are known for not wanting to admit to pollsters that they support him, so they’re not super reliable
On the other hand, Biden supporters are known for not answering phone calls from unknown numbers which makes them even less reliable.
Yeah, maybe it evens out, maybe not.
That is one of 10 various reasons why the polls are not reliable in various directions
