• TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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    8 months ago

    We don’t know how the Uncommitted will actually vote in November, though we can be certain at least some will not vote for Biden if nothing changes. It’s a political game of chicken, and it’s Biden’s move.

    Clinton lost Michigan by 0.2% and it cost her the election. Her campaign opted to not focus on the rust belt and delivered us Trump in the first place.

    Biden is losing this election, and I think if a Trump presidency concerns you, its especially worth considering.

    Biden can’t afford to lose any voters in Michigan. His policies are working against his ability to gather support in the 2024 election. We can’t wait until after November to have this conversation. It needs to happen now.

    • jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
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      8 months ago

      Biden won Michigan by 154,188. All 100,000 uncommitted could stay home and it wouldn’t change the results. It would just be way tighter than necessary.

        • MdRuckus @lemmy.world
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          8 months ago

          Are you forgetting Trump lost 35% in Michigan??!! He got 65% and you’re worried about 13% uncommitted? Trump lost 3x that number in the primary. My bet’s on Joe.

          • NoneOfUrBusiness@kbin.social
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            8 months ago

            Republicans are more zealously loyal than Democrats. They’ll vote for Trump in the general election because as horrible Biden is he doesn’t advocate for hunting the homeless for sport.

            Edit: Also in the Republican primary did Trump run uncontested? If not then the comparison in the first place has no basis in reality.

        • Telorand@reddthat.com
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          8 months ago

          The point is nobody can know that with any certainty. All these preliminary graphs are helpful to campaign strategists, but do you know the number of Uncommitted voters who will ultimately hold their nose and vote for Biden anyway? Or who will change their mind completely? I certainly don’t.

          Sending a message in the primary ≠ doing the strategic thing in the general.

          • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            The point is nobody can know that with any certainty.

            Well we still have to make decisions and decide strategy in the face of uncertainty. Its a yes or no question that I asked, and you can answer it with a yes or a no.

            Do you think Biden can stick with his current approach to Gaza and Israel and win the general election?

            • Telorand@reddthat.com
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              8 months ago

              There’s a third answer: I don’t know. That’s my answer.

              If your plan is strategy, it doesn’t matter what my opinion is. Assume the worst outcome and work as if you can change it.

                • Telorand@reddthat.com
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                  8 months ago

                  To answer otherwise would be lying. “I don’t know” is the only appropriate answer when you don’t know.

                  Your dislike of uncertainty is not my problem.

                  • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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                    8 months ago

                    Its not a dislike, its a recognition that in the real world, we have to make decisions in spite of uncertainty.

                    In the real world, we have to make decisions based on incomplete information all time.

    • NoIWontPickaName@kbin.social
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      8 months ago

      No see you have to VBNMW, we aren’t even supposed to challenge them in the primaries.

      Think of how many people got pissed about voting uncommitted in a primary, now do a vent diagram of people who say the primaries are the time to do this and not the general election.

      Hint: you only have to draw one circle

    • MdRuckus @lemmy.world
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      8 months ago

      Again, if Trump can’t win more than 65% of his own base as a former president, I’m not that worried. The dude has never won the popular it’s and sure as hell won’t this time. He’s definitely lost support. I will place money that Biden will win an even larger popular and electoral vote victory this time.

      • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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        8 months ago

        I would love to have your confidence bro. I really would. I just look at the polling, I look at the messaging, I look at the fervency of the bases, and I don’t have it.

        Trumps voters are excited as all hell to vote for him. He’s got evangelicals perhaps literally worshiping him.

        I just dont see what you are seeing…

          • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            Saved. Love to gamble.

            I’ll give you 1:1 on Biden winning. $20 enough to make it fun?

            Also, I’d like to ask for 20:1 on Biden not being the candidate. If you want those odds, I’d also like to bet $20. (you’d be the house, so if I win, thats a $400 payout on you).

            We can save this post and then venmo or paypal, whatever is preferred.

            Also good with just the first bets or will hear counter odds on Biden not being the candidate.