I mean none of this happens in a vaccuum so of course Trump doesn’t happen if the GOP hadn’t aligned this electorate through fearmongering and culture war BS for decades. But the identity of the party today also depends on Trump - like, can you name one person in the GOP with the kind of sick charisma he has that could stoke the base the way he has? There are many that try but apparently Trump’s ability to rile up the base is not easily replicated so without him around they have less influence over the base. That is why I think without him they would be weakened.