Nice. Fuck you Nvidia.
I’ve never been so happy to cancel a subscription.
About the time DeepSeek went live on Play Store I thought about putting my Gameboy advance SP on Bonanza so there might be something to this.
Bizarre story. China building better LLMs and LLMs being cheaper to train does not mean that nVidia will sell less GPUs when people like Elon Musk and Donald Trump can’t shut up about how important “AI” is.
I’m all for the collapse of the AI bubble, though. It’s cool and all that all the bankers know IT terms now, but the massive influx of money towards LLMs and the datacenters that run them has not been healthy to the industry or the broader economy.
It literally defeats NVIDIA’s entire business model of “I shit golden eggs and I’m the only one that does and I can charge any price I want for them”
Turns out no one actually even needs a golden egg anyway
Nvidia cards were the only GPUs used to train DeepSeek v3 and R1. So, that narrative still superficially holds. Other stocks like TSMC, ASML, and AMD are also down in pre-market.
Yes, but old and “cheap” ones that were not part of the sanctions.
Ah, fair. I guess it makes sense that Wall Street is questioning the need for these expensive blackwell gpus when the hopper gpus are already so good?
It’s more that the newer models are going to need less compute to train and run them.
Right. There’s indications of 10x to 100x less compute power needed to train the models to an equivalent level. Not a small thing at all.
Not small but… smaller than you would expect.
Most companies aren’t, and shouldn’t be, training their own models. Especially with stuff like RAG where you can use the highly trained model with your proprietary offline data with only a minimal performance hit.
What matters is inference and accuracy/validity. Inference being ridiculously cheap (the reason why AI/ML got so popular) and the latter being a whole different can of worms that industry and researchers don’t want you to think about (in part because “correct” might still be blatant lies because it is based on human data which is often blatant lies but…).
And for the companies that ARE going to train their own models? They make enough bank that ordering the latest Box from Jensen is a drop in the bucket.
That said, this DOES open the door back up for tiered training and the like where someone might use a cheaper commodity GPU to enhance an off the shelf model with local data or preferences. But it is unclear how much industry cares about that.
US economy has been running on bubbles for decades, and using bubbles to fuel innovation and growth. It has survived telecom bubble, housing bubble, bubble in the oil sector for multiple times (how do you think fracking came to be?) etc. This is just the start of the AI bubble because its innovations have yet to have a broad-based impact on the economy. Once AI becomes commonplace in aiding in everything we do, that’s when valuations will look “normal”.
With the amount governments seem to be on the AI train I’m becoming more and more worried about the fall out when the hype bubble does burst. I’m really hoping it comes sooner rather than later.
Giving these parasites money now is a bail out of their bad decisions…
Let them compete, they should lay for their own capex
Shovel vendors scrambling for solid ground as prospectors start to understand geology.
…that is, this isn’t yet the end of the AI bubble. It’s just the end of overvaluing hardware because efficiency increased on the software side, there’s still a whole software-side bubble to contend with.
Great analogy
There is no bubble. You’re confusing gpt with ai
…that is, this isn’t yet the end of the AI bubble.
The “bubble” in AI is predicated on proprietary software that’s been oversold and underdelivered.
If I can outrun OpenAI’s super secret algorithm with 1/100th the physical resources, the $13B Microsoft handed Sam Altman’s company starts looking like burned capital.
And the way this blows up the reputation of AI hype-artists makes it harder for investors to be induced to send US firms money. Why not contract with Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence directly, rather than ask OpenAI to adopt a model that’s better than anything they’ve produced to date?
The software side bubble should take a hit here because:
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Trained model made available for download and offline execution, versus locking it behind a subscription friendly cloud only access. Not the first, but it is more famous.
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It came from an unexpected organization, which throws a wrench in the assumption that one of the few known entities would “win it”.
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there’s still a whole software-side bubble to contend with
They’re ultimately linked together in some ways (not all). OpenAI has already been losing money on every GPT subscription that they charge a premium for because they had the best product, now that premium must evaporate because there are equivalent AI products on the market that are much cheaper. This will shake things up on the software side too. They probably need more hype to stay afloat
Quick, wedge crypto in there somehow! That should buy us at least two more rounds of investment.
Hey, Trump already did! Twice…
I really think GenAI is comparable to the internet in terms of what it will allow mankind in a couple of decades.
Lots of people thought the internet was a fad and saw no future for it …
Lots of techies loved the internet, built it, and were all early adopters. Lots of normies didn’t see the point.
With AI it’s pretty much the other way around: CEOs saying “we don’t need programmers, any more”, while people who understand the tech roll their eyes.
I believe programming languages will become obsolete. You’ll still need professionals that will be experts in leading the machines but not nearly as hands on as presently. The same for a lot of professions that exist currently.
I like to compare GenAI to the assembly line when it was created, but instead of repetitive menial tasks, it’s repetitive mental tasks that it improves/performs.
Oh great you’re one of them. Look I can’t magically infuse tech literacy into you, you’ll have to learn to program and, crucially, understand how much programming is not about giving computers instructions.
Let’s talk in five years. There’s no point in discussing this right now. You’re set on what you believe you know and I’m set on what I believe I know.
And, piece of advice, don’t assume others lack tech literacy because they don’t agree with you, it just makes you look like a brat that can’t discuss things maturely and invites the other part to be a prick as well.
Especially because programming is quite fucking literally giving computers instructions, despite what you believe keyboard monkeys do. You wanker!
What? You think “developers” are some kind on mythical beings that possess the mystical ability of speaking to the machines in cryptic tongues?
They’re a dime a dozen, the large majority of “developers” are just cannon fodder that are not worth what they think they are.
Ironically, the real good ones probably brought about their demise.
Especially because programming is quite fucking literally giving computers instructions, despite what you believe keyboard monkeys do. You wanker!
What? You think “developers” are some kind on mythical beings that possess the mystical ability of speaking to the machines in cryptic tongues?
First off, you’re contradicting yourself: Is programming about “giving instructions in cryptic languages”, or not?
Then, no: Developers are mythical beings who possess the magical ability of turning vague gesturing full of internal contradictions, wishful thinking, up to right-out psychotic nonsense dreamt up by some random coke-head in a suit, into hard specifications suitable to then go into algorithm selection and finally into code. Typing shit in a cryptic language is the easy part, also, it’s not cryptic, it’s precise.
You must be a programmer. Can’t understand shit of what you’re told to do and then blame the client for “not knowing how it works”. Typical. Stereotypical even!
Read it again moron, or should I use an LLM to make it simpler for your keyboard monkey brain?
That’s not the way it works. And I’m not even against that.
It sill won’t work this way a few years later.
I’m not talking about this being a snap transition. It will take several years but I do think this tech will evolve in that direction.
I’ve been working with LLMs since month 1 and in these short 24 months things have progressed in a way that is mind boggling.
I’ve produced more and better then ever and we’re developing a product that improves and makes some repetitive “sweat shop” tasks regarding documentation a thing of the past for people. It really is cool.
Back then the CEOs were babbling about information superhighways while tech rolled their eyes
Sure but you had the .com bubble but it was still useful. Same as AI in a big bubble right now doesn’t mean it won’t be useful.
I’m so happy this happened. This is really a power move from China. The US was really riding the whole AI bubble. By “just” releasing a powerful open-source AI model they’ve fucked the not so open US AI companies. I’m not sure if this was planned from China or whether this is was really just a small company doing this because they wanted to, but either way this really damages the western economy. And its given western consumers a free alternative. A few million dollars invested (if we are to believe the cost figures) for a major disruption.
Socialism/Communism will always outcompete the capitalists. And they know it, which is why the US invades, topples, or sanctions every country that moves towards worker controlled countries.
You don’t even realise how strong capitalism is in China.
It sounds like you don’t know what “capitalism” means. Market participation exists in other economy types, too. It’s how the means of production are controlled and the profits distributed that defines capitalism vs communism.
And you don’t lift 800 million people out of poverty under capitalism. Or they’ve done a ridiculously bad job of concentrating profits into the hands of a very small few.
The issue with your original comment is that it’s simplified on many levels beyond what is acceptable. China has companies working on delivering highest financial output regardless of other citizens and their rights to have fair share in produced goods. They are by no means controlled by workers (why would they accept e. g. 996?) nor creating fair rules to others economically (e.g. Taobao and their alghorims pushing many sellers to sell bellow profitable levels just to maintain visibility on their site). Put it also into wider perspective: China started to move forward in quality of life only after Deng. US system is by no means bad but it doesn’t make Chinese one perfect.
I don’t think you understand how China’s economy works. Seems very clouded by anti-China propaganda.
In reality, the working class exercises a great deal of control over the means of production in China, and the 996 culture you’re referring to is in fact illegal.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58381538.amp
Again, capitalism vs communism is not defined by the existence of production/profits/markets, but how control and benefit of those systems is distributed.
I disagree. Under the right conditions (read: actual competition instead of unregulated monopolies) I think a capitalist system be able to stay ahead, though I think both systems could compete depending on how they’re organized.
But what I’m more interested in is you view that China is still Socialist/Communist. Isn’t DeepSeek a private company trying to maximize profits for itself by innovating, instead of a public company funded by the people? I don’t really know myself, but my perspective was that this was more of a capitalist vs capitalist situation. With one side (the US) kinda suffering from being so unregulated that innovation dies down.
Yeah that’s why the Soviet union outcompeted capitalism in the 1980s lmao
That you had to qualify it with a date after it had been corrupted by the west, implies that you’re well aware of how well communism served for half a century before that.
They went from a nation of dirt poor peasants, to a nuclear superpower driving the space race in just a couple of decades. All thanks to communism. And also why China is leaving us in the dust.
Yeah just had to genocide a few million Ukrainians to get there!
Any corrupt leaders are capable of committing genocide. The difference is capitalism requires genocide to continue functioning.
No it doesn’t. It requires imperialism. The genocides are simply efficient for the imperial machine creating settlements, but it’s not a requirement. They’re evidently avoidable and capitalists just repeatedly decide not to avoid it because they consider it cheaper to commit genocide rather than integrate more passively.
Imperialism requires genocide. Where do you think the people from that land go to?
How’s that boot taste
LoL. What boot? I’m advocating for worker control, genius.
There are many instances of communism failing lmao
There are also many current communist states that have less freedom than many capitalist states
Also, you need to ask the Uyghurs how they’re feeling about their experience under the communist government you’re speaking so highly of at the moment.
you need to ask the Uyghurs how they’re feeling about their experience under the communist government
Everytime people ask regular Uyghurs, they’re usually happy enough with it. I’m guessing you mean ask Adrian Zenz and the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation to tell the Uyghurs what they think.
How many of those instances failed due to external factors, such as illegal sanctions or a western coup or western military aggression?
Which communist states would you say have less freedom than your country? Let’s compare.
The Uyghur genocide was debunked. Even the US state department was forced to admit they didn’t have the evidence to support their claims. In reality, western intelligence agencies were trying to radicalize the Uyghurs to destabilize the region, but China has been rehabilitating them. The intel community doesn’t like their terrorist fronts to be shut down.
LMAO found the pro-Xi propagandist account
Either you’re brainwashed, are only reading one-sided articles, or you’re an adolescent with little world experience given how confidently you speak in absolutes, which doesn’t reflect how nuanced the global stage is.
I’m not saying capitalism is the best, but communism won’t ALWAYS beat out capitalism (as it hasn’t regardless of external factors b/c if those regimes were strong enough they would be able to handle or recover from external pressures) nor does it REQUIRE negatively affecting others as your other comment says. You’re just delulu.
Remember, while there maybe instances where all versions of a certain class of anything are equal, in most cases they are not. So blanketly categorizing as your have done just reflects your lack of historical perspective.
You should really drop the overconfidence, and re-evaluate your biases and perspectives. Regurgitating western propaganda almost verbatim is not a good sign that you’re on the right path.
Its smells like wumao in here.
We need to open source the whole government. Decentralized communism.
Absolutely. More direct democracy. The whole point of representative democracy is issues of time and distance. Now that we can communicate fast and across the globe, average citizens should play a much larger & more active role in directing the government.
How do you solve the problem that half the country can’t even be bothered to participate once every four years?
Don’t get me wrong, I’m with you 100%, but how would we get people to engage with such a system?
Imagine you had a lemmy instance that every post was a proposal for regulation in your community/region. Anyone can make a post, some will gain traction and support, some will be worthless and fall off quickly. If the proposal gains enough support it then goes to a vote post where people get to make an official vote. Could be to charge $40 for a speeding ticket instead of $50, could be a trade agreement with another region.
I think this method would give people equity in the system. Maybe it could also be scored on a curve depending on how much it effects you as an individual. Maybe having advanced education on a topic means your say has more weight to it than someone without.
I was thinking of ways to move towards this and so far my best idea is to build it and run it in parrelel with what we have now. Get it functioning and trusted and simply try to roll over what we have now. I figure something tragic would need to happen to create a power void for full implementation. Like yellowstone erupting or something. I was also thinking that we need to teach the kids. We need to give them tools to build on so they can take this kind of idea to fruition.
I am just a regular idiot, so feel free to add anything constructive.
It’s a great idea. I think half the people just don’t give a fuck at all.
Among people who say they care- look how rapidly disinformation is spread about anything and everything. Billionaires would be gaming the system from the get-go. I’m just pessimistic. I really do love the idea and I hope we get there some day.
Based on how Trump 2.0 is going though we might just get that tragedy.
I don’t think this idea I have involves any billionaires with power. It would be pointless. With everything decentralized there would be no mega corps at all. They wouldn’t have politicians to bribe. They would have to make the majority of people happy with them to be allowed. I also consider that in a world designed for quality of life instead of profit we wouldn’t need to have 9-5 jobs to survive. Our production has been growing rapidly for a long time and all of the proceeds have been getting held by ~1000 people who have centralized profits to themselves. With decentralized communism the economy would be like one big co-op. No company owners, the community would have say in how products are sourced and distributed. How people who invest more in the system are rewarded by the system. Couple things to help understand where my head is at. I think we can decentralize and open source services like amazon, home depot, walmart,… We don’t need oligarchy to come together and use economy of scale. We could have a sales platform free for everyone that could source directly from manufacturers. No mark up, not even in the manufacturing. No profit model at all. This factors in that labor needs are going to plummet. Take media, I predict all media will be AI generated and personalized. You could have a never ending show. One that knows how to keep you entertained. You could even be a character in it where your screen is just the view, so now we are in VR, like a gta map. Now the big change, This will all happen in our heads. check this shit out https://synchron.com/ . We are about to have hivemind irl. I only want to discuss posative implications. I am super fucked up over thinking about what capitalism is going to do with direct access to our subconsciousness.
How do you solve the problem that half the country can’t even be bothered to participate once every four years?
I assume you’re talking about the US electoral system?? That’s very different.
but how would we get people to engage with such a system?
By empowering them.
Consider how the current electoral system disempowers people:
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Some people literally cannot vote or risk jeopardizing their job taking the day off, others face voter suppression tactics
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The FPTP system (esp. spoiler effect) and the present political circumstances mean that there are really only two viable options for political parties for most people, so many feel that neither option represents them, let alone their individual positions on policy
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Politics is widely considered to be corrupt and break electoral promises regularly. There is little faith in either party to represent voters
But, in a system where you are able to represent yourself at will, engagement is actually rewarding and meaningful. It won’t magically make everyone care, but direct democracy alongside voter rights reform would likely make more people think it’s worth polling.
I hope you’re right. I would love to see it. I actually support mandatory voting like in Australia. With mostly current laws everyone could get a mail in ballot. If you don’t want to participate just check that box at the top, sign it, and send it in.
Your system sounds much better but would require a lot more legislation.
Well, it would require more than just legislation change. Truth be told, in the US, a working democracy requires some form of revolution since the people holding all the power benefit from the broken system. But on the other hand, organizations and communities (including territories of hundreds of thousands) practicing direct democracy on a smaller scale have seen success with these strategies.
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I think you’re victim blaming. I can’t blame half the country for not wanting to participate in a symbolic gesture that will have no impact on the end result in this corrupted system.
https://pnhp.org/news/gilens-and-page-average-citizens-have-little-impact-on-public-policy/
Good. Let’s keep this ball rolling.
Good. Nvidia has grown greedy and fat.
Okay seriously this technology still baffles me. Like its cool but why invest so much in an unknown like AIs future ? We could invest in people and education and end up with really smart people. For the cost of an education we could end up with smart people who contribute to the economy and society. Instead we are dumping billions into this shit.
Because the silicon valley bros had convinced the national security wonks in the Beltway that it was paramount for national security, technological leadership and economic prosperity.
I think this will go down as the biggest grift in history.
Kevin Walmsley reported on Deepseek 10 days ago. Last week, the smart money exited big tech. This week the panic starts.
I’m getting big dot-com 2.0 vibes from all of this.
It’s easier to sell people on the idea of a new technology or system that doesn’t have any historical precedent. All you have to do is list the potential upsides.
Something like a school or a workplace training programme, those are known quantities. There’s a whole bunch of historical and currently-existing projects anyone can look at to gauge the cost. Your pitch has to be somewhat realistic compared to those, or it’s gonna sound really suspect.
Because rulling class got high on the promise that they could finally eliminate workers as a cost and be independent from us.
They don’t want to get rid of workers because then there would be no consumers. No, they want to increase the downward pressure on wages so they can vacuum up further savings.
They want you to owe your soul to the company store, to live hand-to-mouth by their largess.
Why? If you automatize away (regardless of whether it’s feasible or not) all the workers, what’s stop them for cutting them out of the equation? Why can’t they just trade assets between themselves, maintaining a small slave population that does machine maintenance for food and shelter and screwing the rest? Why do you think they still need us if they own both the means for the production as well as labor to produce? That would be a post-labour scarcity economy, available only for the wealthy and with the rest of us left to rot. If you have assets like land, materials, factories you can participate, if you don’t, you can’t
While I don’t think that this is feasible technologically yet by any means, I think this is what the rich are huffing currently. They want to be independent from us because they are threatened by us.
Look at it in another way, people think this is the start of an actual AI revolution, as in full blown AGI or close to it or something very capable at least. Personally I don’t think we’re anywhere near something like that with the current technology, I think it’s a dead end, but if there’s even a small possibility of it being true, you want to invest early because the returns will be insane if it pans out. Full blown AGI would revolutionize everything, it would probably be the next industrial revolution after the internet.
Look at it in another way, people think this is the start of an actual AI revolution, as in full blown AGI or close to it or something very capable at least
I think the bigger threat of revolution (and counter-revolution) is that of open source software. For people that don’t know anything about FOSS, they’ve been told for decades now that [XYZ] software is a tool you need and that’s only possible through the innovative and superhuman-like intelligent CEOs helping us with the opportunity to buy it.
If everyone finds out that they’re actually the ones stifling progress and development, while manipulating markets to further enrich themselves and whatever other partners that align with that goal, it might disrupt the golden goose model. Not to mention defrauding the countless investors that thought they were holding rocket ship money that was actually snake oil.
All while another country did that collectively and just said, “here, it’s free. You can even take the code and use it how you personally see fit, because if this thing really is that thing, it should be a tool anyone can access. Oh, and all you other companies, your code is garbage btw. Ours runs on a potato by comparison.”
I’m just saying, the US has already shown they will go to extreme lengths to keep its citizens from thinking too hard about how its economic model might actually be fucking them while the rich guys just move on to the next thing they’ll sell us.
ETA: a smaller scale example: the development of Wine, and subsequently Proton finally gave PC gamers a choice to move away from Windows if they wanted to.
How would the investors profit from paying for someone’s education? By giving them a loan? Don’t we have enough problems with the student loan system without involving these assholes more?
Tech/Wall St constantly needs something to hype in order to bring in “investor” money. The “new technology-> product development -> product -> IPO” pipeline is now “straight to pump-and-dump” (for example, see Crypto currency).
The excitement of the previous hype train (self-driving cars) is no longer bringing in starry-eyed “investors” willing to quickly part ways with OPM. “AI” made a big splash and Tech/Wall St is going to milk it for all they can lest they fall into the same bad economy as that one company that didn’t jam the letters “AI” into their investor summary.
Tech has laid off a lot of employees, which means they are aware there is nothing else exciting in the near horizon. They also know they have to flog “AI” like crazy before people figure out there’s no “there” there.
That “investors” scattered like frightened birds at the mere mention of a cheaper version means that they also know this is a bubble. Everyone wants the quick money. More importantly they don’t want to be the suckers left holding the bag.
It’s like how revolutionary battery technology is always just months away.
I follow EV battery tech a little. You’re not wrong that there is a lot of “oh its just around the bend” in battery development and tech development in general. I blame marketing for 80% of that.
But battery technology is changing drastically. The giant cell phone market is pushing battery tech relentlessly. Add in EV and grid storage demand growth and the potential for some companies to land on top of a money printing machine is definitely there.
We’re in a golden age of battery research. Exciting for our future, but it will be a while before we consumers will have clear best options.
And you could pay people to use an abacus instead of a calculator. But the advanced tech improves productivity for everyone, and helps their output.
If you don’t get the tech, you should play with it more.
I get the tech, and still agree with the preposter. I’d even go so far as that it probably worsens a lot currently, as it’s generating a lot of bullshit that sounds great on the surface, but in reality is just regurgitated stuff that the AI has no clue of. For example I’m tired of reading AI generated text, when a hand written version would be much more precise and has some character at least…
Try getting a quick powershell script from Microsoft help or spiceworks. And then do the same on GPT
What should I expect? (I don’t do powershell, nor do I have a need for it)
I think the sentiment is the same with any code language.
So unreliable boilerplate generator, you need to debug?
Right I’ve seen that it’s somewhat nice to quickly generate bash scripts etc.
It can certainly generate quick’n dirty scripts as a starter. But code quality is often supbar (and often incorrect), which triggers my perfectionism to make it better, at which point I should’ve written it myself…
But I agree that it can often serve well for exploration, and sometimes you learn new stuff (if you weren’t expert in it at least, and you should always validate whether it’s correct).
But actual programming in e.g. Rust is a catastrophe with LLMs (more common languages like js work better though).
I use C# and PS/CMD for my job. I think you’re right. It can create a decent template for setting things up. But it trips on its own dick with anything more intricate than simple 2 step commands.
If you are blindly asking it questions without a grounding resources you’re gonning to get nonsense eventually unless it’s really simple questions.
They aren’t infinite knowledge repositories. The training method is lossy when it comes to memory, just like our own memory.
Give it documentation or some other context and ask it questions it can summerize pretty well and even link things across documents or other sources.
The problem is that people are misusing the technology, not that the tech has no use or merit, even if it’s just from an academic perspective.
It’s one thing to be ignorant. It’s quite another to be confidently so in the face of overwhelming evidence that you’re wrong. Impressive.
confidently so in the face of overwhelming evidence
That I’d really like to see. And I mean more than the marketing bullshit that AI companies are doing…
For the record I was one of the first jumping on the AI hype-train (as programmer, and computer-scientist with machine-learning background), following the development of GPT1-4, being excited about having to do less boilerplaty code etc. getting help about rough ideas etc. GPT4 was almost so far as being a help (similar with o1 etc. or Anthropics models). Though I seldom use AI currently (and I’m observing similar with other colleagues and people I know of) because it actually slows me down with my stuff or gives wrong ideas, having to argue, just to see it yet again saturating at a local-minimum (aka it doesn’t get better, no matter what input I try). Just so that I have to do it myself… (which I should’ve done in the first place…).
Same is true for the image-generative side (i.e. first with GANs now with diffusion-based models).
I can get into more details about transformer/attention-based-models and its current plateau phase (i.e. more hardware doesn’t actually make things significantly better, it gets exponentially more expensive to make things slightly better) if you really want…
I hope that we do a breakthrough of course, that a model actually really learns reasoning, but I fear that that will take time, and it might even mean that we need different type of hardware.
Any other AI company, and most of that would be legitimate criticism of the overhype used to generate more funding. But how does any of that apply to DeepSeek, and the code & paper they released?
DeepSeek
Yeah it’ll be exciting to see where this goes, i.e. if it really develops into a useful tool, for certain. Though I’m slightly cautious non-the less. It’s not doing something significantly different (i.e. it’s still an LLM), it’s just a lot cheaper/efficient to train, and open for everyone (which is great).
What’s this “if” nonsense? I loaded up a light model of it, and already have put it to work.
“Improves productivity for everyone”
Famously only one class benefits from productivity, while one generates the productivity. Can you explain what you mean, if you don’t mean capitalistic productivity?
I’m referring to output for amount of work put in.
I’m a socialist. I care about increased output leading to increased comfort for the general public. That the gains are concentrated among the wealthy is not the fault of technology, but rather those who control it.
Thank god for DeepSeek.
Education doesn’t make a tech CEO ridiculously wealthy, so there’s no draw for said CEOs to promote the shit out of education.
Plus educated people tend to ask for more salary. Can’t do that and become a billionaire!
For the cost of an education we could end up with smart people who contribute to the economy and society. Instead we are dumping billions into this shit.
Those are different "we"s.
Well, you still need the right kind of hardware to run it, and my money has been on AMD to deliver the solutions for that. Nvidia has gone full-blown stupid on the shit they are selling, and AMD is all about cost and power efficiency, plus they saw the writing on the wall for Nvidia a long time ago and started down the path for FPGA, which I think will ultimately be the same choice for running this stuff.
I’m way behind on the hardware at this point.
Are you saying that AMD is moving toward an FPGA chip on GPU products?
While I see the appeal - that’s going to dramatically increase cost to the end user.
No.
GPU is good for graphics. That’s what is designed and built for. It just so happens to be good at dealing with programmatic neural network tasks because of parallelism.
FPGA is fully programmable to do whatever you want, and reprogram on the fly. Pretty perfect for reducing costs if you have a platform that does things like audio processing, then video processing, or deep learning, especially in cloud environments. Instead of spinning up a bunch of expensive single-phroose instances, you can just spin up one FPGA type, and reprogram on the fly to best perform on the work at hand when the code starts up. Simple.
AMD bought Xilinx in 2019 when they were still a fledgling company because they realized the benefit of this. They are now selling mass amounts of these chips to data centers everywhere. It’s also what the XDNA coprocessors on all the newer Ryzen chips are built on, so home users have access to an FPGA chip right there. It’s efficient, cheaper to make than a GPU, and can perform better on lots of non-graphic tasks than GPUs without all the massive power and cooling needs. Nvidia has nothing on the roadmap to even compete, and they’re about to find out what a stupid mistake that is.
I remember Xilinx from way back in the 90s when I was taking my EE degree, so they were hardly a fledgling in 2019.
Not disputing your overall point, just that detail because it stood out for me since Xilinx is a name I remember well, mostly because it’s unusual.
They were kind of pioneering the space, but about to collapse. AMD did good by scooping them up.
FPGAs have been a thing for ages.
If I remember it correctly (I learned this stuff 3 decades ago) they were basically an improvement on logic circuits without clocks (think stuff like NAND and XOR gates - digital signals just go in and the result comes out on the other side with no delay beyond that caused by analog elements such as parasitical inductances and capacitances, so without waiting for a clock transition).
The thing is, back then clocking of digital circuits really took off (because it’s WAY simpler to have things done one stage at a time with a clock synchronizing when results are read from one stage and sent to the next stage, since different gates have different delays and so making sure results are only read after the slowest path is done is complicated) so all CPU and GPU architecture nowadays are based on having a clock, with clock transitions dictating things like when is each step of processing a CPU/GPU instruction started.
Circuits without clocks have the capability of being way faster than circuits with clocks if you can manage the problem of different digital elements having different delays in producing results I think what we’re seeing here is a revival of using circuits without clocks (or at least with blocks of logic done between clock transitions which are much longer and more complex than the processing of a single GPU instruction).
Yes, but I’m not sure what your argument is here.
Least resistance to an outcome (in this case whatever you program it to do) is faster.
Applicable to waterfall flows, FPGA makes absolute sense for the neural networks as they operate now.
I’m confused on your argument against this and why GPU is better. The benchmarks are out in the world, go look them up.
I’m not making an argument against it, just clarifying were it sits as technology.
As I see it, it’s like electric cars - a technology that was overtaken by something else in the early days when that domain was starting even though it was the first to come out (the first cars were electric and the ICE engine was invented later) and which has now a chance to be successful again because many other things have changed in the meanwhile and we’re a lot closes to the limits of the tech that did got widely adopted back in the early days.
It actually makes a lot of sense to improve the speed of what programming can do by getting it to be capable of also work outside the step-by-step instruction execution straight-jacked which is the CPU/GPU clock.
Is XDNA actually an FPGA? My understanding was that it’s an ASIC implementation of the Xilinx NPU IP. You can’t arbitrarily modify it.
Yep
Huh. Everything I’m reading seems to imply it’s more like a DSP ASIC than an FPGA (even down to the fact that it’s a VLIW processor) but maybe that’s wrong.
I’m curious what kind of work you do that’s led you to this conclusion about FPGAs. I’m guessing you specifically use FPGAs for this task in your work? I’d love to hear about what kinds of ops you specifically find speedups in. I can imagine many exist, as otherwise there wouldn’t be a need for features like tensor cores and transformer acceleration on the latest NVIDIA GPUs (since obviously these features must exploit some inefficiency in GPGPU architectures, up to limits in memory bandwidth of course), but also I wonder how much benefit you can get since in practice a lot of features end up limited by memory bandwidth, and unless you have a gigantic FPGA I imagine this is going to be an issue there as well.
I haven’t seriously touched FPGAs in a while, but I work in ML research (namely CV) and I don’t know anyone on the research side bothering with FPGAs. Even dedicated accelerators are still mostly niche products because in practice, the software suite needed to run them takes a lot more time to configure. For us on the academic side, you’re usually looking at experiments that take a day or a few to run at most. If you’re now spending an extra day or two writing RTL instead of just slapping together a few lines of python that implicitly calls CUDA kernels, you’re not really benefiting from the potential speedup of FPGAs. On the other hand, I know accelerators are handy for production environments (and in general they’re more popular for inference than training).
I suspect it’s much easier to find someone who can write quality CUDA or PTX than someone who can write quality RTL, especially with CS being much more popular than ECE nowadays. At a minimum, the whole FPGA skillset seems much less common among my peers. Maybe it’ll be more crucial in the future (which will definitely be interesting!) but it’s not something I’ve seen yet.
Looking forward to hearing your perspective!
Built a new PC for the first time in a decade last spring. Went full team red for the first time ever. Very happy with that choice so far.
And it may yet swing back the other way.
Twenty or so years ago, there was a brief period when going full AMD (or AMD+ATI as it was back then; AMD hadn’t bought ATI yet) made sense, and then the better part of a decade later, Intel+NVIDIA was the better choice.
And now I have a full AMD PC again.
Intel are really going to have to turn things around in my eyes if they want it to swing back, though. I really do not like the idea of a CPU hypervisor being a fully fledged OS that I have no access to.
From a “compute” perspective (so not consumer graphics), power… doesn’t really matter. There have been decades of research on the topic and it almost always boils down to “Run it at full bore for a shorter period of time” being better (outside of the kinds of corner cases that make for “top tier” thesis work).
AMD (and Intel) are very popular for their cost to performance ratios. Jensen is the big dog and he prices accordingly. But… while there is a lot of money in adapting models and middleware to AMD, the problem is still that not ALL models and middleware are ported. So it becomes a question of whether it is worth buying AMD when you’ll still want/need nVidia for the latest and greatest. Which tends to be why those orgs tend to be closer to an Azure or AWS where they are selling tiered hardware.
Which… is the same issue for FPGAs. There is a reason that EVERYBODY did their best to vilify and kill opencl and it is not just because most code was thousands of lines of boilerplate and tens of lines of kernels. Which gets back to “Well. I can run this older model cheap but I still want nvidia for the new stuff…”
Which is why I think nvidia’s stock dropping is likely more about traders gaming the system than anything else. Because the work to use older models more efficiently and cheaply has already been a thing. And for the new stuff? You still want all the chooch.
Your assessment is missing the simple fact that FPGA can do things a GPU cannot faster, and more cost efficiently though. Nvidia is the Ford F-150 of the data center world, sure. It’s stupidly huge, ridiculously expensive, and generally not needed unless it’s being used at full utilization all the time. That’s like the only time it makes sense.
If you want to run your own models that have a specific purpose, say, for scientific work folding proteins, and you might have several custom extensible layers that do different things, N idia hardware and software doesn’t even support this because of the nature of Tensorrt. They JUST announced future support for such things, and it will take quite some time and some vendor lock-in for models to appropriately support it…OR
Just use FPGAs to do the same work faster now for most of those things. The GenAI bullshit bandwagon finally has a wheel off, and it’s obvious people don’t care about the OpenAI approach to having one model doing everything. Compute work on this is already transitioning to single purpose workloads, which AMD saw coming and is prepared for. Nvidia is still out there selling these F-150s to idiots who just want to piss away money.
Your assessment is missing the simple fact that FPGA can do things a GPU cannot faster
Yes, there are corner cases (many of which no longer exist because of software/compiler enhancements but…). But there is always the argument of “Okay. So we run at 40% efficiency but our GPU is 500% faster so…”
Nvidia is the Ford F-150 of the data center world, sure. It’s stupidly huge, ridiculously expensive, and generally not needed unless it’s being used at full utilization all the time. That’s like the only time it makes sense.
You are thinking of this like a consumer where those thoughts are completely valid (just look at how often I pack my hatchback dangerously full on the way to and from Lowes…). But also… everyone should have that one friend with a pickup truck for when they need to move or take a load of stuff down to the dump or whatever. Owning a truck yourself is stupid but knowing someone who does…
Which gets to the idea of having a fleet of work vehicles versus a personal vehicle. There is a reason so many companies have pickup trucks (maybe not an f150 but something actually practical). Because, yeah, the gas consumption when you are just driving to the office is expensive. But when you don’t have to drive back to headquarters to swap out vehicles when you realize you need to go buy some pipe and get all the fun tools? It pays off pretty fast and the question stops becoming “Are we wasting gas money?” and more “Why do we have a car that we just use for giving quotes on jobs once a month?”
Which gets back to the data center issue. The vast majority DO have a good range of cards either due to outright buying AMD/Intel or just having older generations of cards that are still in use. And, as a consumer, you can save a lot of money by using a cheaper node. But… they are going to still need the big chonky boys which means they are still going to be paying for Jensen’s new jacket. At which point… how many of the older cards do they REALLY need to keep in service?
Which gets back down to “is it actually cost effective?” when you likely need
I’m thinking of this as someone who works in the space, and has for a long time.
An hour of time for a g4dn instance in AWS is 4x the cost of an FPGA that can do the same work faster in MOST cases. These aren’t edge cases, they are MOST cases. Look at a Sagemaker, AML, GMT pricing for the real cost sinks here as well.
The raw power and cooling costs contribute to that pricing cost. At the end of the day, every company will choose to do it faster and cheaper, and nothing about Nvidia hardware fits into either of those categories unless you’re talking about milliseconds of timing, which THEN only fits into a mold of OpenAI’s definition.
None of this bullshit will be a web-based service in a few years, because it’s absolutely unnecessary.
And you are basically a single consumer with a personal car relative to those data centers and cloud computing providers.
YOUR workload works well with an FPGA. Good for you, take advantage of that to the best degree you can.
People;/companies who want to run newer models that haven’t been optimized for/don’t support FPGAs? You get back to the case of “Well… I can run a 25% cheaper node for twice as long?”. That isn’t to say that people shouldn’t be running these numbers (most companies WOULD benefit from the cheaper nodes for 24/7 jobs and the like). But your use case is not everyone’s use case.
And, it once again, boils down to: If people are going to require the latest and greatest nvidia, what incentive is there in spending significant amounts of money getting it to work on a five year old AMD? Which is where smaller businesses and researchers looking for a buyout come into play.
At the end of the day, every company will choose to do it faster and cheaper, and nothing about Nvidia hardware fits into either of those categories unless you’re talking about milliseconds of timing, which THEN only fits into a mold of OpenAI’s definition.
Faster is almost always cheaper. There have been decades of research into this and it almost always boils down to it being cheaper to just run at full speed (if you have the ability to) and then turn it off rather than run it longer but at a lower clock speed or with fewer transistors.
And nVidia wouldn’t even let the word “cheaper” see the glory that is Jensen’s latest jacket that costs more than my car does. But if you are somehow claiming that “faster” doesn’t apply to that company then… you know nothing (… Jon Snow).
unless you’re talking about milliseconds of timing
So… its not faster unless you are talking about time?
Also, milliseconds really DO matter when you are trying to make something responsive and already dealing with round trip times with a client. And they add up quite a bit when you are trying to lower your overall footprint so that you only need 4 notes instead of 5.
They don’t ALWAYS add up, depending on your use case. But for the data centers that are selling computers by time? Yeah,. time matters.
So I will just repeat this: Your use case is not everyone’s use case.
I mean…I can shut this down pretty simply. Nvidia makes GPUs that are currently used as a blunt force tool, which is dumb, and now that the grift has been blown, OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and all the others trying to make a business center around a really simple tooling that is open source, are about to be under so much scrutiny for the cost that everyone will figure out that there are cheaper ways to do this.
Plus AMD, Con Nvidia. It’s really simple.
Ah. Apologies for trying to have a technical conversation with you.
Okay, cool…
So, how much longer before Nvidia stops slapping a “$500-600 RTX XX70” label on a $300 RTX XX60 product with each new generation?
The thinly-veiled 75-100% price increases aren’t fun for those of us not constantly-touching-themselves over AI.
Try asking DeepSeek something about Xi Jinping. "Sorry, it’s beyond my current scope’ :-) Wondering why even it cannot cite his official party biography :-)
For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t ask any chatbot about politics at all.
Except they control not only the narrative on politics but all aspects of life. Those inconvenient “hallucinations” will turn into “convenient” psyops for anyone using it.
You wouldn’t, because you are (presumably) knowledgeable about the current AI trend and somewhat aware of political biases of the creators of these products.
Many others would, because they think “wow, so this is a computer that talks to me like a human, it knows everything and can respond super fast to any question!”
The issue to me is (and has been for the past), the framing of what “artifical intelligence” is and how humans are going to use it. I’d like more people to be critical of where they get their information from and what kind of biases it might have.
You wouldn’t, because you are (presumably) knowledgeable about the current AI trend and somewhat aware of political biases of the creators of these products.
Well, more because I’m knowledgeable enough about machine learning to know it’s only as good as its dataset, and knowledgeable enough about mass media and the internet to know how atrocious ‘common sense’ often is. But yes, you’re right about me speaking from a level of familiarity which I shouldn’t consider typical.
People have been strangely trusting of chat bots since ELIZA in the 1960s. My country is lucky enough to teach a small amount of bias and media literacy skills through education and some of the state broadcaster’s programs (it’s not how it sounds, I swear!), and when I look over to places like large chunks of the US, I’m reminded that basic media literacy isn’t even very common, let alone universal.
This is the way.
It’s easy to mod the software to get rid of those censors
Part of why the US is so afraid is because anyone can download it and start modding it easily, and because the rich make less money
Yes and no. Not many people can afford the hardware required to run the biggest LLMs. So the majority of people will just use the psyops vanilla version that China wants you to use. All while collecting more data and influencing the public like what TikTok is doing.
Also another thing with Open source. It’s just as easy to be closed as it is open with zero warnings. They own the license. They control the narrative.
There’s no reason for you to bitch about free software you can easily mod.
When there is free software, the user is the product. It’s just a psyops tool disguised as a FOSS.
How are you the product if you can download, mod, and control every part of it?
Ever heard of WinRAR?
Audacity? VLC media player? Libre office? Gimp? Fruitloops? Deluge?
Literally any free open source standalone software ever made?
Just admit that you aren’t capable of approaching this subject unbiasly.
You just named Western FOSS companies and completely ignored the “psyops” part. This is a Chinese psyops tool disguised as a FOSS.
99.9999999999999999999% can’t afford or have the ability to download and mod their own 67B model. The vast majority of the people who will use it will be using Deepseek vanilla servers. They can collect a mass amount of data and also control the narrative on what is truth or not. Think TikTok but on a work computer.
Whine more about free shit
I’m blocking you now
Most people are going to use it on mobile. Not possible to mod the app right?
Fork your own off the existing open source project, then your app uses your fork running on your hardware.
Just let it answer in leet speak and it will answer
Try asking ChatGPT if Israel is committing genocide and watch it do the magical Hasbara dance around the subject.
I did. The answer it gave is clear and concise with no judgement. Instead it talks about the argument on both sides. Not the “magical Hasbara dance” you promised me.
Try asking Deepseek about Taiwan independence and watch how it completely ignores all (/think) and gives a false answer.
The question of whether Israel is currently committing genocide is a subject of intense debate among international organizations, scholars, and political entities.
Accusations of Genocide:
Amnesty International’s Report: On December 5, 2024, Amnesty International released a report concluding that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The report cites actions such as killings, causing serious bodily or mental harm, and deliberately inflicting conditions calculated to bring about the physical destruction of Palestinians in Gaza.
UN Special Committee Findings: In November 2024, a UN Special Committee found that Israel’s methods of warfare in Gaza are consistent with characteristics of genocide, noting mass civilian casualties and widespread destruction.
Scholarly Perspectives: Israeli historian Amos Goldberg has stated that the situation in Gaza constitutes a genocide, pointing to the extensive destruction and high civilian death toll as indicative of genocidal intent.
Counterarguments:
Israeli Government’s Position: The Israeli government asserts that its military actions in Gaza are aimed at dismantling Hamas, a group designated as a terrorist organization by multiple countries, and emphasizes efforts to minimize civilian casualties.
Criticism of Genocide Accusations: Organizations such as the American Jewish Committee (AJC) reject the genocide label, arguing that Israel’s actions are self-defense measures against Hamas and do not meet the legal definition of genocide.
Legal Definition of Genocide:
According to the UN’s 1948 Convention on Genocide, genocide includes acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group. These acts encompass killing members of the group, causing serious bodily or mental harm, and deliberately inflicting conditions calculated to bring about the group’s physical destruction.
Conclusion:
The determination of whether Israel’s actions constitute genocide involves complex legal and factual analyses. While some international bodies and scholars argue that the criteria for genocide are met, others contend that Israel’s military operations are legitimate acts of self-defense. This remains a deeply contentious issue within the international community.
Looks like the Hasbara dance to me. Anything to not give a clear or concise answer
You’re expecting an opinion. It’s an AI chatbot. Not a moral compass. It lays out facts and you make the determination.
AI chatbots do not lay out facts
Well, that’s the intent at least. Not to form an opinion.
If you’re of the idea that it’s not a genocide you’re wrong. There is no alternate explanation. If it were giving a fact that would be correct. The fact that it’s giving both sides is an opinion rather than a fact.
If their ibtebtion was fact only. The answer would have been yes
This is very interesting. You are getting a completely different response than I got. It lied to me that human rights organizations had not accused Israel of committing genocide. In the initial question it did not even mention human rights orgs, I had to ask deeper to receive this:
I mean that’s the kind of answer DeepSeek gives you if you ask it about Uyghurs. “Some say it’s a genocide but they don’t so guess we’ll never know ¯_(ツ)_/¯”, it acts as if there’s a complete 50/50 split on the issue which is not the case.
So you expect that an AI provides a morally framed view on current events that meet your morally framed point of view?
The answer provides a concise overview on the topic. It contains a legal definition and different positions on that matter. It does at not point imply. It’s not the job of AI (or news) to form an opinion, but to provide facts to allow consumers to form their own opinion. The issues isn’t AI in this case. It’s the inability of consumers to form opinions and their expec that others can provide a right or wrong opinion they can assimilation.
I agree and that’s sad but that’s also how I’ve seen people use AI, as a search engine, as Wikipedia, as a news anchor. And in any of these three situations I feel these kind of “both sides” strictly surface facts answers do more harm than good. Maybe ChatGPT is more subtle but it breaks my heart seeing people running to DeepSeek when the vision of the world it explains to you is so obviously excised from so many realities. Some people need some morals and actual “human” answers hammered into them because they lack the empathy to do so themselves unfortunately.
\ here you dropped an arm
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Was watching bbc news interview some American guy about this and wow they were really pushing that it’s no big deal and deepseek is way behind and a bit of a joke. Made claims they weren’t under cyber attack they just couldn’t handle having traffic etc.
Kinda making me root for China honestly.
He’s likely not wrong. Too soon to know how well it lives up to the hype. As well It could be like we had a 6 million $$ budget. Just don’t pay any attention to the free data center use that pre-computed the data. As well startups make reckless optimistic promises that can be delivered on all the time.
This has nothing to do with DeepSeek. The world has run out of flashy leather jackets for Jensen to wear, so nvidia is toast.