The survey by the Council on American Islamic Relations finds 40% of Muslim-American voters in Michigan say they support Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein.
That is based on the assumption that a 3rd party voter would vote for a right wing duopoly party to begin with if there were no 3rd party options.
Not really. It’s the subset of voters that have an effect on the votes of the doupoly candidates, and 3rd party voters who would never vote for the doupoly candidates by definition aren’t in that subset to begin with.
Zooming out/accounting for voters abstaining doesn’t actually change anything:
Election report for election "Plurality 2 Candidates"
Total people: 1047
11% of people supported the winner.
Kruger - 112 votes - WINNER
Sahl - 111 votes
Election report for election "Plurality 3 Candidates"
Total people: 1047
10% of people supported the winner.
Sahl - 109 votes - WINNER
Kruger - 93 votes
Maikol - 91 votes
The overwhelming majority of Maikol’s votes came from voters who didn’t vote for the preexisting duopoly. However Maikol’s entrance into the race was enough to split the vote with Kruger, causing the election to be won by Sahl.
The math is the same math, it still shows the spoiler effect.
Not really. It’s the subset of voters that have an effect on the votes of the doupoly candidates, and 3rd party voters who would never vote for the doupoly candidates by definition aren’t in that subset to begin with.
Zooming out/accounting for voters abstaining doesn’t actually change anything:
The overwhelming majority of Maikol’s votes came from voters who didn’t vote for the preexisting duopoly. However Maikol’s entrance into the race was enough to split the vote with Kruger, causing the election to be won by Sahl.
The math is the same math, it still shows the spoiler effect.
Then the best solution is create an create an environment where Democrats are the 3rd party.