Latest Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania has Harris up by 3 points, 50% to 47%. Based on that low level of undecided/3rd party voters, trend lines, historical movement of polls from mid August to November, Nate Silver’s model predicts that 59% of the time, the candidate who is winning 50% to 47% right now will win the state in November.
If these were the poll numbers she’d probably be in Texas trying to flip it, that would be crazy.
These are not polls they are odds of winning.
Latest Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania has Harris up by 3 points, 50% to 47%. Based on that low level of undecided/3rd party voters, trend lines, historical movement of polls from mid August to November, Nate Silver’s model predicts that 59% of the time, the candidate who is winning 50% to 47% right now will win the state in November.
If these were the poll numbers she’d probably be in Texas trying to flip it, that would be crazy.