• neatchee@lemmy.world
    0·
    1 month ago

    You’re saying that the numbers displayed are indicating the % of polls that favor each candidate in that state, not the probability the candidate will win each state overall?

    • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
      0·
      1 month ago

      So the text of the tweet says % chance of winning, but the figure seems to show the poll numbers.

      A poll number isn’t the same as the probability of winning at a given poll number. They are related but not the same.

      It just looks like maybe the full tweet wasn’t screenshotted?

      I subscribed to his substack but I’m on mobile and lazy and don’t want to go grab the numbers.