I don’t know why so many people are convinced that polls are meaningful. I don’t know anyone under 40 who has a landline, or who answers cold calls from random numbers, which is how the vast majority of polling in the US is done.
I get polls through the mail
As they state towards the bottom of the page this specific poll was conducted online:
On June 28, 2024, Data for Progress conducted a survey of 1,011 U.S. likely voters nationally using web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and 2020 recalled vote. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error associated with the sample size is ±3 percentage points. Results for subgroups of the sample are subject to increased margins of error. Partisanship reflected in tabulations is based on self identified party affiliation, not partisan registration. For more information please visit dataforprogress.org/our-methodology
While it’s true that polls can vary widely and are sometimes unreliable, it’s worth noting that according to their 2020 retrospective conservative white voters tend to be underrepresented, while liberal voters and activists are overrepresented in their surveys. This is consistent with a previous analysis by FiveThirtyEight showing that in 2019-2020 polls substantially overestimated Democratic performance.
Not sure why they always make it about age. Age doesn’t really matter as long as the cognitive ability is there
Cognitive ability alone is not the whole story, the ability to be persuasive and communicate well is also a key point. I watched the whole debate, and Biden did not communicate well at all. He started out lousy, got a bit better in the middle, but then fell off the wagon again. I think if he had finished strong it would be a lot different.
Age is a key concern because it will affect everyone. Not every 80 year old is diminished, and not everyone has that mental decline before their physical decline accellerates. But we all end up in the same place, in the end. So his age is the one concern that Biden can’t counteract with a policy change or an executive order. All he can do is show us what he has. And he simply didn’t deliver, even after all his debate prep.
I agree 100%
Yea and then you have a 50 year old like Trudeau and they all say he’s too young
Because when your presidential candidate looks like random demented grandpa who was found wondering through mall and now can’t remember where he lives, that doesn’t inspire confidence. No matter how bad the other side is.
Probably because thentisk of cognitive ability decline over a 4 year period increases significantly. Even if either were at their peak now, there is a higher risk of cognitive decline. Biden already shows signs of decline, so will likely worsen significantly. Trump likely has severe mental health issues and was never in peak health since entering politics.
Pressure should be placed in Biden to stand down. Trump too, but he won’t respond to calls to do the right thing. Biden might. Biden whole reason to stand was to not have Trump. Well, he’s causing it to be more likely Trump. He should state that both of them are too old and mental faculties are not there and stand down.
If he does not, everyone we sensible should still vote Biden in. Trump is dangerous and unhinged.
Trump didn’t seem that dangerous or unhinged to me. I also don’t see mental decline in Trump like I do Biden. I don’t see how any sensible person could vote for Biden. The US cannot be run by someone with dementia
Do you see how it could be led by a fascist? Does that seem good to you…? Are you just ok with Americans being murdered by the right? That will happen with Trump, I guarantee it.
Why didn’t it happen when he was in office before? And right now we’re being murdered by illegal aliens, and that’ll continue until Biden is gone
Oh this is who you are, a racist trump supporter
They’re just less likely to have it reported to the fbi statistics. 40% of our major cities aren’t reporting crime statistics to the fbi now. No matter how you try to frame it, there are still illegals in our country murdering, raping, and robbing people, crimes that were completely preventable. And you don’t know me, people like you just call everyone a racist that doesn’t agree with your ideology
Youre talking about that change in reporting requirement from 2021. Good thing this article cites studies and timelines well before then.
This is a meaningless poll. Bidden has a leg up because of his incumbency and because he’s the presumptive nomines
Now those are utterly meaningless. Incumbency worked so well for Trump, amirite?
I can’t believe you can write that with a straight face when he’s losing in national polling, losing with battleground state swing voters, and losing large chunks of critical Hispanic and Black voters.
Every single data-point is significantly-worse than Biden’s 2020 performance where he won by a whole 40,000 votes in battleground states.
Compared to other democratic candidates, biden has a leg up because incumbency. This link is about the nominee, not who wins.
And trump absolutely benefited from incumbency. The whole GOP practically rebuilt itself around him.
It’s irrelevant if it doesn’t actually propel you past the finish-line, though, isn’t it? So explain to me how incumbency and the DNC “building itself around” Biden is substantively altering the outcome of, for emphasis:
- Losing large chunks of critical Hispanic & Black Voters (voters who shouldn’t be in question to begin with)
- Losing Battleground swing-state voters.
- Losing in national polling versus Trump (where he was ahead in 2020 or at worst even)
- Has aggregate approval ratings in the 30s.
I’ll wait.
Next, answer this: Joe Biden is not the nominee yet either, for the convention has yet to happen. Now let’s be clear: In the event Biden voluntarily steps down and either an open convention occurs or he endorses, is it really that inconceivable for you to believe overnight polling for such a candidate would skyrocket as both grassroots and establishment and MASSIVE widespread media press inundate such a person with coverage…?
So at the end of the day, we have high confidence Biden will lose in November 6th if we stay the course. If that’s the case, I believe we should take the chance to put someone fresh in and who is younger. That assuages a major concern for 70% of the electorate and reinvigorates people to vote for someone new. As Mehdi Hasan said, “Americans love new shit.”
Okay I didn’t that because its likely off topic.
This article is about a statistic, which says (very narrowly) that Biden (is currently) polling better than other hypothetical nominees. I’m saying that this is because Biden is more well known, due to his incumbency.
This statistic does not and can not sat anything about if a different Democratic candidate would poll better or worse than Biden if they were nominated or were the presumptive nominee.
Because Biden is the president, he is in the news more, and is more recognizable, and thus more people “like” him than whoever else was listed on this study.
There is a reason incumbents are almost always the nominee. Voters are generally not well educated and the vast majority of them just know Biden.
I will agree with the longstanding precedent of incumbent-advantage; but I do not see how that shores up support here and in the now. Put it this way: Polls show incumbent advantage is doing fundamentally nothing to put Biden past the numbers he needs in order to cross the finish-line.
And But don’t you think Biden’s numbers – steadily declining for months if not years, mind you – are sort of baked in? Media saturation has taken place, and Biden in the spotlight long enough that projections would suggest nothing will fundamentally change and that these are losing numbers – yes? So between knowing we will likely lose versus taking the gamble of garnering viral excitement from nominating a younger fresh face, the latter would be better in my view.
Look I’m sorry, but you gave zero response to the damaging statistics I mentioned except to point vaguely toward incumbency which clearly isn’t helping enough with the output of those statistics. So can changing candidates do more? I think so.
