cross-posted from: https://lemmit.online/post/2684707
Reports: Russia may run out of tanks very soon
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The original was posted on /r/ukrainianconflict by /u/Positive_Detective56 on 2024-04-17 09:34:57.
Russia started with 14000 tank chassis. No one really can know to what extent any of those were still usable. Most of them probably weren’t. The best analysis I’ve seen has been from Covert Cabal who attempts to track the number of chassis left in storage and their condition from satelite imagery. IIRC they also give Russia about 1-2 more years.
[Edit corrected 12000 to 140000]
Russia is in it until they are defeated. Their economy is now dependent on the war.
Unfortunately that means another 8 million men left in their twenties and a surplus of Soviet era weapons.
A formula as old as the Soviets.
Not just “this” war, war in general. I understand why the Baltics are getting more antsy as the Russian economy retools itself for war.
USA under Trump will run to Putin’s help.
Yeah let’s hope that doesn’t happen.
Upvote for covert cabal. Opinions are fine but looking for facts is golden.
Wikipedia lists a total of 14000 tanks, reserves included, (majority being T-72 and modernized variants) + unknown number of T-54 and T-64. I suppose even the russians don’t know how many of those are in combat ready shape by any stretch, but apparently at least a half (not counting ones they’ve bought from elsewhere).
So, as the war has been going for two years that 1-2 years more sounds plausible. If current news are anything to go by I’m quite afraid that Ukraine doesn’t have that much unless they really start receiving reinforcements from Europe and US. And should Ukraine collapse it would take 5-10(ish) years for Russia to rebuild enough hardware to do the very same thing with some other country. Maybe not with a NATO country and maybe not one the global west is as interested as Ukraine, but it could (or would, depending on which prediction you want to follow) happen.
Plus the wild card of China, who no doubt are following the situation and spesifically western response pretty closely. I wonder what happened to those 800 000 artillery shells Czechs promised to gather…
I may have gotten the number wrong as I did it from memory. Some of these numbers are simply what Russia has said they have, which may or not be 100% factual to begin with. Anyhow, Covert Cabal still has the best info out there in terms of verifiable numbers.
As for the Czech plan for artillery shells, I just happened to have an article open as I saw your message, it looks like they’ve funded 500,000 shells so far