• ThatOneKrazyKaptain@lemmy.worldOP
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    2 months ago

    All I’m gonna say is that if they get this wrong, it’s the biggest upset in the betting circuit thus far.

    They had Kamala ahead of Biden for a full 5 days prior to him dropping out and she had been solidly second place since the 30th (Newsom initially had a spike, but then fell), trading first place with Biden several times before that final soar.

    JD Vance was solidly Top 2 in the Rep VP race from early June onward and was Number 1 most days in July outside of one or two brief Burgum spikes.

    They were pretty solid on Trump being the Rep nominee from the start of 2023 onward, only a brief dip around the midterms.

    Shapiro has been in the Top 2 solidly since betting opened on the 23rd-24th(And by that time people like Newsom and Whitmer who might have had an early lead had betting opened on the 21st or before Biden dropped had publically said no) and has had an extremely strong lead since the 30th never dropping below 20 points ahead of second place and briefly getting as high as 50 points ahead of everyone else.

    There also hasn’t been a consistent second place option ala Burgum, Kelly was the other guy to hit first place and traded spots with Shapiro initially, but he tanked horribly on the 30th-31st and never recovered. Beshear has been first once or twice and was a strong 3rd or 4th prior, but he’s never gotten to 20% or higher. Same with Buttigieg. Walz is the strongest right now, and he admittedly was handicapped a bit as he didn’t get put on the poll until the 31st(His name wasn’t on the initial first week list at all and by the time he was popping up hard the betting already opened), but even accounting for that at his best he’s never gotten to the level of Mark Kelly pre-30th(who was in the mid 30s point wise peaking at 44%), let alone Shapiro post-30th (who has been anywhere from 55-77%).