• possibly a cat@lemmy.ml
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    5 months ago

    Ukraine has countered Russia far longer than almost anyone expected. But if you’re only able to counter and never able to counter-attack then you will lose given enough time (a war of attrition like ShimmeringKoi stated). Ukraine defending territory from Russia is an impressive feat - but them reclaiming significant regions is going from unlikely to unimaginable. Especially as time goes on and Russia can rely on its larger economy and population to fortify and reinforce its positions. And Russia can order exactly what it needs instead of relying on foreign cooperation. At this point Russia only really loses if its economy breaks (or else if a much wider conflict breaks out), which is why Ukrainian allies have enacted so many sanctions.

    If you’ve been reading that Ukraine was making big territorial gains recently, or that they had Russia decisively on the defensive, then that’s probably just propaganda. But for pro-Ukrainian-statists, any day that Ukraine still exists legitimately merits some celebration (because the odds are not on their side). And technically each day is progress toward their most realistic victory condition, which is a Russian economic failure. So that can also color the reporting in addition to overt propaganda. (And there is a lot of propaganda being circulated, as one should expect of any active conflict.)