- cross-posted to:
- politics@beehaw.org
- cross-posted to:
- politics@beehaw.org
Summary
Trump’s popular vote share has fallen below 50% to 49.94%, with Kamala Harris at 48.26%, narrowing his margin of victory.
Trump’s share of the popular vote is lower than Biden’s in 2020 (51.3%), Obama’s in 2012 (51.1%) and 2008 (52.9%), George W. Bush’s in 2004 (50.7%), George H.W. Bush’s in 1988 (53.2%), Reagan’s in 1984 (58.8%) and 1980 (50.7%), and Carter’s in 1976 (50.1%).
The 2024 election results highlight Trump’s narrow victory and the need for Democrats to address their mistakes and build a diverse working-class coalition.
The numbers also give Democrats a reason to push back on Trump’s mandate claims, noting most Americans did not vote for him.
The only thing of note here is that since the winner got <50%, then I’m guessing 3rd party votes were slightly higher this election.
1.7% in 2024.
1.9% in 2020.
5.7% in 2016.
1.7% in 2012.
1.4% in 2008.
2024 is not the outlier. It’s mostly about how well the other major party candidate does.
So, 4% less in 2024 than in 2016, the last time he won. That by itself stands in pretty stark contrast to those who want to blame his victory on people who voted for a third party.
Trump won in 2024 chiefly because millions upon millions of Dems who voted in 2020 stayed home in 2024. That’s the reality.
probably also a mix of lack of accessible voting, so the soy peeps who are bitching and moaning right now, are probably in the crowd of people that didn’t vote (or just actually busy people, idk)
and malaise towards the incumbency (global phenomenon)